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首页> 外文期刊>Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science >Empirical tools for simulating salinity in the estuaries in Everglades National Park, Florida
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Empirical tools for simulating salinity in the estuaries in Everglades National Park, Florida

机译：佛罗里达大沼泽国家公园河口盐度模拟的经验工具

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摘要

Salinity in a shallow estuary is affected by upland freshwater inputs (surface runoff, stream/canal flows, groundwater), atmospheric processes (precipitation, evaporation), marine connectivity, and wind patterns. In Everglades National Park (ENP) in South Florida, the unique Everglades ecosystem exists as an interconnected system of fresh, brackish, and salt water marshes, mangroves, and open water. For this effort a coastal aquifer conceptual model of the Everglades hydrologic system was used with traditional correlation and regression hydrologic techniques to create a series of multiple linear regression (MLR) salinity models from observed hydrologic, marine, and weather data. The 37 ENP MLR salinity models cover most of the estuarine areas of ENP and produce daily salinity simulations that are capable of estimating 65-80% of the daily variability in salinity depending upon the model. The Root Mean Squared Error is typically about 2-4 salinity units, and there is little bias in the predictions. However, the absolute error of a model prediction in the nearshore embayments and the mangrove zone of Florida Bay may be relatively large for a particular daily simulation during the seasonal transitions. Comparisons show that the models group regionally by similar independent variables and salinity regimes. The MLR salinity models have approximately the same expected range of simulation accuracy and error as higher spatial resolution salinity models.
机译：浅河口的盐度受到陆地淡水输入（地表径流，河流/运河流量，地下水），大气过程（降水，蒸发），海洋连通性和风向的影响。在南佛罗里达的大沼泽国家公园（ENP）中，独特的大沼泽生态系统以淡水，咸淡水和咸水沼泽，红树林和开阔水域的相互联系的系统存在。为此，将Everglades水文系统的沿海含水层概念模型与传统的相关和回归水文技术结合使用，根据观测到的水文，海洋和天气数据创建了一系列多元线性回归（MLR）盐度模型。 37个ENP MLR盐度模型涵盖了ENP的大部分河口区域，并产生了每日盐度模拟，这些模拟能够根据模型估算每日盐度变化的65-80％。均方根误差通常约为2-4盐度单位，并且预测中几乎没有偏差。但是，对于季节性过渡期间的特定每日模拟，在佛罗里达湾的近岸污染物和红树林带中进行模型预测的绝对误差可能相对较大。比较表明，这些模型按相似的自变量和盐度制度按区域分组。 MLR盐度模型与更高的空间分辨率盐度模型具有近似相同的预期模拟精度和误差范围。

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