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首页> 外文期刊>Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science >Developing spatial models of sugar kelp (Saccharina latissima) potential distribution under natural conditions and areas of its disappearance in Skagerrak
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Developing spatial models of sugar kelp (Saccharina latissima) potential distribution under natural conditions and areas of its disappearance in Skagerrak

机译：在自然条件下及其在斯卡格勒克地区消失的地区开发糖海带（Saccharina latissima）潜力分布的空间模型

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摘要

Sugar kelp (Saccharina latissima) forests have an important ecological function in the coastal zone, as they inhabit a high number and a specific composition of fauna. In 2002, a large-scale disappearance of sugar kelp was observed in Skagerrak and parts of the south-western coast of Norway, and the perennial sugar kelp forests were replaced by opportunistic and ephemeral filamentous algae. For management purposes, including identifying areas for restoration initiatives, maps of where sugar kelp forests are supposed to be found and where and under what conditions they have disappeared are needed. Based on modelled and field-measured geophysical variables and presence/absence/loss data of sugar kelp, we therefore developed spatial predictive probability models (i.e. maps) for sugar kelp potential distribution under natural conditions and areas of kelp loss. The influence of geophysical factors was analysed using generalized additive models (GAMs). Using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) for model selection, we found that wave exposure, depth, light exposure and slope best explained the potential distribution of sugar kelp. Areas of sugar kelp disappearance were identified by the combined effect of wave and light exposure. These models were developed into maps presented to the managers.
机译：糖海带（Saccharina latissima）森林在沿海地区具有重要的生态功能，因为它们栖息着大量且具有特定组成的动物群。 2002年，在Skagerrak和挪威西南海岸的部分地区观察到大规模的糖海带消失，多年生的糖海带森林被机会性和短暂的丝状藻类所取代。出于管理目的，包括确定恢复计划的区域，需要在哪里可以找到糖海带森林以及在什么条件下以及在什么条件下消失的地图。因此，基于建模和现场测量的地球物理变量以及糖海带的存在/不存在/损失数据，我们开发了自然条件和海藻损失区域下糖海带电势分布的空间预测概率模型（即地图）。使用广义加性模型（GAM）分析了地球物理因素的影响。使用Akaike信息准则（AIC）进行模型选择，我们发现波浪暴露，深度，光照和坡度最能解释糖海带的潜在分布。糖海带消失的区域是通过波浪和光照的联合作用来鉴定的。这些模型被开发成呈现给管理者的地图。

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