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首页> 外文期刊>Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science >Prediction of annual average sedimentation rates in an estuary using numerical models with verification against core data - Mahurangi Estuary, New Zealand
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Prediction of annual average sedimentation rates in an estuary using numerical models with verification against core data - Mahurangi Estuary, New Zealand

机译：使用数值模型并通过核心数据验证来预测河口年平均沉积速率-Mahurangi河口，新西兰

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摘要

Modelling sedimentation rates within an estuary over the time scale of years to decades is a difficult undertaking. The complex nature of sediment transport and the compounding errors associated with making predictions over longer time-scales introduce a high degree of uncertainty when predicting the fate of catchment-derived sediments. In this paper a methodology is presented that links catchment and estuary models that simulate the runoff of sediment from catchments and its subsequent dispersal within the estuary to provide estimates of annual sedimentation rates within the estuary. The models are calibrated against short-term field data and the methodology is validated against sedimentation rates obtained from sediment cores.rnThe catchment of the Mahurangi Estuary delivers between 3800 and 39,000 tonnes/yr with an average load of just over 15,000 tonnes/yr being delivered to the estuary. Data from sediment cores show that over 80% of this load is deposited within the estuary resulting in sedimentation rates of 25 mm/yr in the upper estuary and less than 5 mm/yr in the lower sections of the estuary. The methodology predicts these rates of sedimentation across a range of sub environments within the estuary.
机译：在几年到几十年的时间范围内模拟河口内的沉积速率是一项艰巨的任务。当预测集水区沉积物的命运时，沉积物运输的复杂性以及与在较长时间范围内进行预测相关的复合误差带来了高度的不确定性。在本文中，提出了一种方法，该方法将流域和河口模型联系起来，该模型模拟了来自流域的沉积物径流及其在河口内的后续扩散，从而提供了河口内年沉积速率的估算值。这些模型已根据短期现场数据进行了校准，并且该方法已针对从沉积物核心获得的沉积速率进行了验证。rnMahurangi河口的集水量为3800至39,000吨/年，平均负载量仅为15,000吨/年到河口。来自沉积物岩心的数据表明，超过80％的这种负荷沉积在河口内，导致上河口的沉积速率为25 mm / yr，而在河口下部的沉积速率小于5 mm / yr。该方法可以预测河口内一系列子环境中的沉积速率。

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