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首页> 外文期刊>Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science >Sea surface temperature and the brown shrimp (Farfantepenaeus aztecus) population on the Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and Texas continental shelves
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Sea surface temperature and the brown shrimp (Farfantepenaeus aztecus) population on the Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and Texas continental shelves

机译：海面温度和阿拉巴马州，密西西比州，路易斯安那州和德克萨斯州大陆架上的褐虾（Farfantepenaeus aztecus）种群

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摘要

Analysis of the Southeast Area Monitoring and Assessment Program — Gulf of Mexico (SEAMAP-GM) summer and fall trawl survey data covering the Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and Texas continental shelves for the period 1987—2000 shows that the annual number n and weight w of the brown shrimp per trawl is positively correlated with annual sea surface temperature (SST) averaged over the continental shelves. Correlations of the monthly anomalous SST by calendar month with the annual shrimp data are highest in April and May. Past work has suggested a possible reason for this: juvenile brown shrimp, which mainly develop from postlarvae in coastal estuaries in April and May, grow faster in warmer water and are therefore more likely to escape predators. Since the juvenile shrimp population is a good predictor of the adult shelf shrimp population, and since the estuarine and shelf SST are closely linked, it is reasonable that April and May shelf SST should be positively correlated with the number and weight of brown shrimp per trawl. Shrimp are more numerous in the summer and the correlation of April and May SST anomaly is much higher for the number and weight per trawl in the summer than in the fall. Hindcasts are made using the simple linear statistical prediction model n = α + β·SSTA, where SSTA is the anomalous April-May departure of SST from the annual cycle. The cross-verified correlation between model and observed n is r = 0.77. A similar model for w gave r = 0.79. A prediction model for summer shrimp alone had cross-verified correlations r = 0.79 for n and 0.86 for w. Based on the 2004 April—May SST anomaly, annual and summer models predict that n and w should be close to average in 2004.
机译：东南地区监测和评估计划—墨西哥湾（SEAMAP-GM）1987年至2000年覆盖阿拉巴马州，密西西比州，路易斯安那州和德克萨斯州大陆架的夏季和秋季拖网调查数据分析表明，年数n和重量w每只拖网捕捞棕色虾的数量与大陆架上的年平均海表温度（SST）正相关。 4月和5月，按日历月计的月度异常海温与对虾的相关性最高。过去的工作表明了这种现象的可能原因：褐褐虾主要在4月和5月从沿海河口的幼体发育而来，在温暖的水中生长较快，因此更有可能逃脱食肉动物。由于幼虾数量是成年成对虾种群的良好预测指标，并且由于河口和成年SST紧密相关，因此4月和5月成年SST与每只拖网褐虾的数量和重量呈正相关是合理的。夏季，虾的数量更多，夏季，每只拖网的数量和重量与4月和5月SST异常的相关性要比秋季高得多。使用简单的线性统计预测模型n =α+β·SSTA进行后播，其中SSTA是SST在4月至5月偏离年度周期的异常。模型与观察到的n之间的交叉验证相关性为r = 0.77。 w的类似模型得出r = 0.79。仅夏季虾的预测模型对n进行交叉验证的相关性r = 0.79，对于w进行交叉验证的相关性0.86。根据2004年4月至5月的SST异常，年度和夏季模型预测n和w应该接近2004年的平均值。

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