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首页> 外文期刊>Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science >Qualitative modelling for the Caete Mangrove Estuary (North Brazil): a preliminary approach to an integrated eco-social analysis
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Qualitative modelling for the Caete Mangrove Estuary (North Brazil): a preliminary approach to an integrated eco-social analysis

机译：Caete红树林河口（巴西北部）的定性模型：整合生态社会分析的初步方法

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摘要

The sustainability of different integrated management regimes for the mangrove ecosystem of the Caete Estuary (North Brazil) were assessed using a holistic theoretical framework. As a way to demonstrate that the behaviour and trajectory of complex whole systems are not epiphenomenal to the properties of the small parts, a set of conceptual models from more reductionistic to more holistic were enunciated. These models integrate the scientific information published until present for this mangrove ecosystem. The sustainability of different management scenarios (forestry and fishery) was assessed. Since the exploitation of mangrove trees is not allowed according Brazilian laws, the forestry was only included for simulation purposes. The model simulations revealed that sustainability predictions of reductionistic models should not be extrapolated into holistic approaches. Forestry and fishery activities seem to be sustainable only if they are self-damped. The exploitation of the two mangrove species Rhizophora mangle and Avicenia germinans does not appear to be sustainable, thus a rotation harvest is recommended. A similar conclusion holds for the exploitation of invertebrate species. Our results suggest that more studies should be focused on the estimation of maximum sustainable yield based on a multispecies approach. Any reference to holistic sustainability based on reductionistic approaches may distort our understanding of the natural complex ecosystems.
机译：使用整体理论框架评估了Caete河口（巴西北部）红树林生态系统不同综合管理制度的可持续性。为了证明复杂的整个系统的行为和轨迹不影响小部件的特性，阐述了一系列从简化性到整体性的概念模型。这些模型整合了该红树林生态系统迄今为止发布的科学信息。评估了不同管理方案（林业和渔业）的可持续性。由于巴西法律禁止开采红树林，因此仅出于模拟目的而包括林业。模型模拟表明，不应将还原性模型的可持续性预测外推到整体方法中。林业和渔业活动只有自给自足，才看来是可持续的。对两种红树林物种Rhizophora mangle和Avicenia菌种的开发似乎是不可持续的，因此建议轮作。对无脊椎动物物种的开发也有类似的结论。我们的结果表明，更多的研究应该集中在基于多物种方法的最大可持续产量的估计上。任何基于简化方法的整体可持续性的提述都可能扭曲我们对自然复杂生态系统的理解。

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