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首页> 外文期刊>Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science >An operational coastal forecasting tool for performing ensemble modeling
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An operational coastal forecasting tool for performing ensemble modeling

机译：用于进行整体建模的可操作的海岸预测工具

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摘要

An automated coastal estuarine modeling system, termed Multistage, is created in the ADCIRC hydrodynamic model. The software development was motivated by the need for reducing the simulation wall-dock time to increase the scalability of ADCIRC for ensemble modeling. Multistage makes use of a one-way nesting technique as an alternative to the continuous single-domain approach. Hydrodynamic predictions, such as storm surge and waves, are made for a targeted coastal region in a two-stage scheme consisting of a large-scale coarse mesh simulation and a small-scale fine mesh simulation. The nesting technique is adjusted for accurate and efficient coastal estuarine modeling with careful considerations. We propose and successfully test a method for the coarse mesh extending onshore rather than the common practice of extending the fine mesh offshore. Repetitive ensemble computations are allowed over both the coarse mesh and the fine mesh in an efficient time frame. Modeling preparations and processes are scripted to eliminate the additional efforts needed for applying this model nesting technique. The tool is tested on two coastal estuarine systems, and its performance is compared with the conventional single-domain method and observational data. By implementing Multistage, forecast runtimes are reduced by 50% to more than 80% using the same model parameters and computational resources as used in the conventional single-domain technique. Depending on the domain and model type, it is possible to perform 3-to-5 ensemble simulations on both coarse and fine meshes by applying the nesting technique and using the same amount of CPU-hours needed to complete one single-domain simulation. This research details the concept, preliminary results and offline applications of the tool. Future work is focused on enhancing the ease of use and on development and implementation of a real-time version.
机译：在ADCIRC水动力模型中创建了一个称为多级的自动化沿海河口建模系统。软件开发的动机是需要减少仿真墙停靠时间，以增加用于集成建模的ADCIRC的可伸缩性。多阶段使用单向嵌套技术作为连续单域方法的替代方法。针对目标沿海地区的水动力预测（包括风暴潮和海浪）采用两阶段方案进行，包括大型粗网格模拟和小型细网格模拟。仔细考虑后，调整嵌套技术以进行准确而有效的沿海河口建模。我们提出并成功地测试了一种将粗网布延伸到岸上的方法，而不是将细网布延伸到近海的常规做法。在有效的时间范围内，可以对粗网格和细网格进行重复合奏计算。编写脚本的建模准备和过程可以消除应用此模型嵌套技术所需的额外工作。该工具在两个沿海河口系统上进行了测试，并将其性能与传统的单域方法和观测数据进行了比较。通过实施Multistage，使用与传统单域技术相同的模型参数和计算资源，可以将预测运行时间减少50％至80％以上。根据域和模型类型的不同，可以通过应用嵌套技术并使用完成一个单域仿真所需的相同CPU时间，对粗网格和细网格进行3到5集成仿真。这项研究详细介绍了该工具的概念，初步结果和离线应用。未来的工作重点是提高易用性以及实时版本的开发和实施。

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