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首页> 外文期刊>Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science >Saltwater intrusion in a subtropical estuary
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Saltwater intrusion in a subtropical estuary

机译:亚热带河口咸水入侵

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River discharge, precipitation, wind, water level and salinity measurements were used to investigate saltwater intrusion in a subtropical estuary. The upstream limit of saltwater intrusion was defined by the position of the 2 g/kg isohaline (X-2) as it changed each tidal cycle. Observations were obtained from November 2014 to November 2015 along the Suwannee River, at Florida's Big Bend. Observations provided information to construct a first-order autoregressive Markov-chain model and predict X-2. The model predicts from its position in the previous tidal cycle, from river discharge, from water level, from precipitation and from wind velocity. In order to capture the seasonality of the Suwannee River discharge, the analysis was done separately for high and low river discharge regimes. The high discharge regime for the particular year of observations coincided with the cold season and had a mean value of 360 m(3)/s. The low discharge regime overlapped with the warm season and had a mean of 198 m(3)/s. As expected, saltwater intrusion was inversely related to river discharge. Values of X-2 were 0.4 km for a discharge of 377 m(3)/s, and 6 km for a discharge of 195 m(3)/s. The autoregressive model was able to reproduce the observed seasonality of saltwater intrusion in the Suwannee River. The model was then used to project values of X-2 for different scenarios of climate change as represented by possible combinations of river discharge and water levels.
机译:使用河流流量,降水,风,水位和盐度测量来调查亚热带河口的盐水入侵。咸水入侵的上游极限是由2 g / kg的异卤(X-2)的位置定义的,因为它改变了每个潮汐周期。观测是从2014年11月至2015年11月在佛罗里达大弯的Suwannee河上获得的。观测结果为构建一阶自回归马尔可夫链模型和预测X-2提供了信息。该模型根据其在前一个潮汐周期中的位置,河流排放量,水位,降水量和风速进行预测。为了捕获Suwannee河流量的季节性,分别对高流量和低流量进行了分析。特定年份的高排放状态与寒冷季节相吻合,平均值为360 m(3)/ s。低流量排放时段与温暖季节重叠,平均速度为198 m(3)/ s。不出所料,盐水入侵与河流流量成反比。对于377 m(3)/ s的放电,X-2的值为0.4 km,对于195 m(3)/ s的放电,X-2的值为6 km。自回归模型能够重现Suwannee河中观察到的盐水入侵的季节性。然后,该模型用于预测不同气候变化情景下X-2的值,以河流流量和水位的可能组合表示。

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