Impact of the future coastal water temperature scenarios on the risk of potential growth of pathogenic Vibrio marine bacteria

Ferchichi Habiba; St-Hilaire Andre; Ouarda Taha B. M. J.; Levesque Benoit

首页> 外文期刊>Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science >Impact of the future coastal water temperature scenarios on the risk of potential growth of pathogenic Vibrio marine bacteria

【24h】

Impact of the future coastal water temperature scenarios on the risk of potential growth of pathogenic Vibrio marine bacteria

机译：未来沿海水温情景对致病患者潜在生长风险的影响

获取原文

获取原文并翻译 | 示例

掌桥外文数据库（机构版） >>

开具论文收录证明 >>

文献代查 >>

页面导航

摘要
著录项
相关主题

摘要

Vibrio (V), a genus of marine bacteria, are common inhabitants of warm coastal waters and estuaries. Vibrio includes V. parahaemolyticus and V. vulnificus species that can cause human infections through the consumption of contaminated shellfish (as bivalve molluscs). The growth of pathogenic Vibrio is related to ambient water temperature and seems to increase at 15 degrees C and over. The expansion of Vibrio infection outbreak is increasing worldwide due to the increase of the sea surface temperature as a result of ocean warming. Canada's coast is not an exception to this worldwide Vibrio spread. Faced with this issue, this study focuses on modelling the future potential Vibrio growth risk along the coasts of the St. Lawrence Gulf and Estuary, where the shellfish industry is well developed. This is done using the adequate machine learning model with explanatory variables that include air temperature and wind speed for predicting future water temperatures. Based on the predicted future water temperature scenarios and a threshold of 15 degrees C to determine the conditions favorable to the growth of Vibrio bacteria, we modelled the Vibrio growth risk indicator, i.e. the number of days exceeding the minimum temperature for Vibrio pathogenic growth (15 degrees C), in the horizon 2040-2100. Simulations show that the number of days, where the minimum temperature (15 degrees C) will be reached, will increase spatially and even seasonally and all the shellfish beds would meet the temperature condition for Vibrio growth regardless of the climate scenario (optimistic and pessimistic).

机译：vibrio（v）是海洋细菌的一群，是温暖沿海水域和河口的常见居民。 vibrio包括通过污染的贝类消费（作为双级软体动物）来引起人类感染的V. parahaemolyticus和V.Vulnfificus物种。致病性弧菌的生长与环境水温有关，似乎在15℃又增加了15℃。由于海洋变暖导致海面温度的增加，vibrio感染爆发的扩大正在增加全世界。加拿大的海岸并不是一个全世界普拉的蔓延的例外。面对这个问题，这项研究侧重于沿着圣劳伦斯海湾和河口沿岸的未来潜在的震动增长风险，贝类工业发达良好。这是使用具有解释性变量的足够机器学习模型来完成的，该变量包括空气温度和风速，以预测未来的水温。基于预测的未来水温场景和15摄氏度的阈值，以确定有利于弧菌细菌生长的条件，我们建模了弧菌生长风险指标，即超过血液致病生长的最低温度的天数（15程度c），在地平线2040-2100中。模拟表明，最小温度（15摄氏度）将达到的天数将在空间甚至季节性地增加，并且所有贝类床都会满足Vibrio增长的温度条件，而不管气候情景如何（乐观和悲观）。

著录项

来源
《Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science》 |2021年第5期|107094.1-107094.10|共10页
作者
Ferchichi Habiba; St-Hilaire Andre; Ouarda Taha B. M. J.; Levesque Benoit;
展开▼
作者单位

Inst Natl Rech Sci Ctr Eau Terre Environm 490 Couronne Quebec City PQ G1K 9A9 Canada;

Inst Natl Rech Sci Ctr Eau Terre Environm 490 Couronne Quebec City PQ G1K 9A9 Canada|Univ New Brunswick Canadian River Inst Fredericton NB Canada;

Inst Natl Rech Sci Ctr Eau Terre Environm Canada Res Chair Stat Hydroclimatol 490 Couronne Quebec City PQ G1K 9A9 Canada;

Inst Natl Sante Publ Quebec Direct Sante Environm & Toxicol 945 Ave Wolfe Quebec City PQ G1V 5B3 Canada|Univ Laval Fac Med Dept Med Sociale & Prevent Quebec City PQ Canada;

展开▼
收录信息
原文格式 PDF
正文语种 eng
中图分类
关键词
Coastal water temperature; Vibrio bacteria; Climate change; Modelling; Prediction; Machine learning models; Artificial neural networks; Random forests;

机译：沿海水温;弧菌细菌;气候变化;建模;预测;机器学习模型;人工神经网络;随机森林;

Impact of the future coastal water temperature scenarios on the risk of potential growth of pathogenic Vibrio marine bacteria

摘要

著录项

相关主题

期刊订阅