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Scenarios for the future of the European process industry - the case of the chemical industry

机译：欧洲加工业的未来方案-化工行业

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摘要

Will the European manufacturing industry survive in the long term? This question has been discussed for decades. The issue is particularly controversial for the chemical industry with its energy-intensive production and unpleasant image in European cities. We studied future challenges for the European chemical industry until the year 2030. Based on a Delphi survey in real-time format, we compiled the perspectives of 38 experts from industry, academia and government concerning 15 projections. The results were analysed according to the likelihood of occurrence, the impact and the desirability of the projections. Based on the 249 qualitative statements made by the participating experts, we derived four future scenarios. The scenarios address developments in sustainability and the dependency of the industry on oil in the future. Our research contributes to understanding the challenges that the chemical industry in Europe will face in the future, as well as which competitive advantages will contribute to its success.
机译：欧洲制造业能否长期生存？这个问题已经讨论了数十年。对于化学工业来说，这个问题特别有争议，因为它的能源密集型生产和在欧洲城市的形象不佳。我们研究了直到2030年欧洲化学工业的未来挑战。基于实时的Delphi调查，我们收集了来自工业，学术界和政府的38位专家对15个预测的观点。根据出现的可能性，影响和预测的可取性对结果进行了分析。根据与会专家发表的249项定性声明，我们得出了四种未来情况。这些方案解决了可持续性方面的发展以及未来该行业对石油的依赖。我们的研究有助于理解欧洲化学工业未来将面临的挑战，以及哪些竞争优势将为其成功做出贡献。

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