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首页> 外文期刊>European journal of political economy >Trade, poverty, and social protection in developing countries
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Trade, poverty, and social protection in developing countries

机译：发展中国家的贸易，贫困和社会保护

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How do shifts in trade affect social protections for the poor? Although the fraction of the world's population considered the "extreme" poor has fallen by over one-half over the past quarter century, many of those lifted above the global poverty line remain vulnerable to shocks that could place them back into poverty. These are the groups that require social protection to stabilize their incomes. Among the shocks to which the absolute poor have been exposed are those created by trade liberalization, particularly of the agricultural sector. The resulting risks, uncertainties, and threats to social stability from this type of trade require that the poor be provided with some forms of adjustment assistance. We examine the effects of trade components on several dimensions of social protection in developing countries, including spending, coverage, and adequacy over the past two decades. We find that, contrary to previous studies, disaggregating trade may be a key to determining which international market variables drive expansion of social protection. Disaggregating trade balances in agricultural vs. manufactured goods reveals that net food and agricultural exporters provide better social protection than countries that report agricultural trade deficits. Meanwhile, countries with manufacturing trade surpluses tend to experience reduced social protection coverage. We reason that governments of net agricultural exporters face incentives to invest in social programs that extend eligibility to the rural poor. Manufacturing export-driven economies, on the other hand, are likely participants in global production chains that limit the capacity of the public sector to extend social protection.
机译：贸易的变化如何影响穷人的社会保护？尽管在过去的四分之一世纪中，被认为是“极端”贫困人口的世界人口减少了一半以上，但许多摆脱全球贫困线以上的人仍然容易受到冲击，有可能使他们重新陷入贫困。这些是需要社会保护才能稳定其收入的群体。绝对贫困人口所遭受的冲击包括贸易自由化，特别是农业部门的贸易自由化所造成的冲击。这种贸易带来的风险，不确定性和对社会稳定的威胁要求向穷人提供某种形式的调整援助。我们研究了贸易成分对发展中国家社会保护的几个方面的影响，包括过去二十年来的支出，覆盖面和充足性。我们发现，与以前的研究相反，对贸易进行分类可能是确定哪些国际市场变量推动社会保护扩展的关键。按农产品和制成品分类的贸易差额显示，与报告农业贸易逆差的国家相比，粮食和农业净出口商提供了更好的社会保护。同时，具有制造业贸易顺差的国家往往会经历社会保护覆盖面减少的情况。我们认为，农业净出口国政府面临投资于将农村贫困人口的资格扩大到社会计划的激励。另一方面，制造业出口驱动型经济体很可能成为全球生产链的参与者，这限制了公共部门扩大社会保护的能力。

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