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首页> 外文期刊>European Journal of Population/Revue européenne de Démographie >The Cost of Low Fertility in Europe
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The Cost of Low Fertility in Europe

机译：欧洲低生育率的代价

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摘要

We analyze the effect of fertility on income per capita with a particular focus on the experience of Europe. For European countries with below-replacement fertility, the cost of continued low fertility will only be observed in the long run. We show that in the short run, a fall in the fertility rate will lower the youth dependency ratio and increase the working-age share, thus raising income per capita. In the long run, however, the burden of old-age dependency dominates the youth dependency decline, and continued low fertility will lead to small working-age shares in the absence of large migration inflows. We show that the currently very high working-age shares generated by the recent declines in fertility and migration inflows are not sustainable, and that significant drops in the relative size of the working-age population should be expected. Without substantial adjustments in labor force participation or migration policies, the potential negative repercussions on the European economy are large.
机译：我们分析了生育率对人均收入的影响，尤其着重于欧洲的经验。对于生育率低于替代水平的欧洲国家，只有长期才能观察到持续低生育率的代价。我们表明，从短期来看，生育率的下降将降低青年的抚养比，增加工作年龄的比例，从而提高人均收入。但是，从长远来看，老年人抚养的负担在青年抚养的下降中占主导地位，持续的低生育率将导致在没有大量移民流入的情况下工作年龄所占的比例很小。我们表明，由于近期生育率和移民流入的下降而产生的目前很高的劳动年龄份额是不可持续的，应该预期劳动年龄人口的相对规模将大大下降。如果不对劳动力参与或移民政策进行重大调整，则对欧洲经济的潜在负面影响很大。

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