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Really Bayesian

机译:真正的贝叶斯

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摘要

The cover of the Jan. 15 issue of the prestigious science journal Nature is striking. Viewed from above, a tennis player swings her racket toward a contour map of concentric ovals, representing her estimate of the location of the ball, as it streaks toward her. The caption archly inquires, "Anyone for Bayesian integration?" If I were trolling for a high-IQ dinner partner, I'd definitely try reading that magazine-with the cover plainly visible-at the courtside cafe of the local tennis club. I'm concerned, though, that the adjective "Bayesian" has been getting an awful lot of sloppy play these days in connection with e-mail filtering. Like "artificial intelligence" and "expert system" before it, I fear that a useful term of art is in danger of being muddled by hype to the point that its meaning-and its value to critical decision-support applications, as well as to mundane junk-mail cleanup-are lost.
机译:1月15日,著名的自然科学杂志的封面引人注目。从上方看,一个网球运动员将球拍朝着同心椭圆形的轮廓图摆动,代表着她向球上划球时对球位置的估计。标题大胆地询问:“有人参与贝叶斯整合吗?”如果我想找一个智商高的晚餐伙伴,我肯定会尝试在当地网球俱乐部的场边咖啡馆看那本杂志,封面清晰可见。不过,我担心形容词“贝叶斯”近年来在与电子邮件过滤有关的情况下表现得很差劲。像之前的“人工智能”和“专家系统”一样,我担心有用的艺术术语有被炒作弄糊涂的危险,以至于其含义以及对关键决策支持应用程序的价值以及平凡的垃圾邮件清理操作已丢失。

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