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A fuzzy analytic network process model to mitigate the risks associated with offshore wind farms

机译：减轻海上风电场相关风险的模糊分析网络过程模型

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In the offshore renewable energy industry, it is extremely important to reduce the likelihood as well as the magnitude of potential risk events during system's actual operation. Operational risks (either risk of system failures or environmental risks) may cause catastrophic damages to personnel or infrastructure and result in substantial costs in terms of lost production and emergency maintenance operations. Selection of a suitable strategy for mitigation of the risks associated with offshore renewable energy projects is a very complex and critical task. The aim of this paper is to propose a fuzzy analytic network process (FANP) approach, based on Chang's extent analysis, in order to select the "most appropriate risk mitigation strategy" for offshore wind farms. Our proposed model consists of four possible alternatives (variation of offshore site layout, improvement of maintenance services, upgrading the monitoring systems, and modification in design of wind turbines) among which the decision maker has to select the best strategy according to four comparison criteria: safety, added value, cost and feasibility. The model is then applied to determine a suitable risk mitigation strategy for an offshore wind farm consisting of 30 wind turbines of 2 MW. Finally, the results are compared with those obtained using the crisp AHP and ANP models. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译：在海上可再生能源行业中，降低系统实际运行期间的可能性以及潜在风险事件的数量极为重要。操作风险（系统故障风险或环境风险）可能会对人员或基础设施造成灾难性损害，并导致生产损失和紧急维护操作方面的巨额成本。选择合适的策略来减轻与海上可再生能源项目相关的风险是一项非常复杂而关键的任务。本文的目的是在Chang的程度分析基础上，提出一种模糊分析网络过程（FANP）方法，以便为海上风电场选择“最合适的风险缓解策略”。我们提出的模型包括四个可能的选择（改变海上工地布局，改善维护服务，升级监控系统以及修改风力涡轮机的设计），其中决策者必须根据四个比较标准选择最佳策略：安全，增值，成本和可行性。然后将该模型应用于确定由30台2兆瓦风力涡轮机组成的海上风电场的合适风险缓解策略。最后，将结果与使用清晰AHP和ANP模型获得的结果进行比较。 （C）2014 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

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