...
  • 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Expert systems with applications >A Hybrid Fuzzy-probabilistic System For Risk Analysis In Petroleum Exploration Prospects
【24h】

A Hybrid Fuzzy-probabilistic System For Risk Analysis In Petroleum Exploration Prospects

机译：石油勘探前景的风险分析混合模糊概率系统

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

Petroleum exploration is an economical activity where many billions of dollars are invested every year. Despite these enormous investments, it is still considered a classical example of decision-making under uncertainty. In this paper, a new hybrid fuzzy-probabilistic methodology is proposed and the implementation of a software tool for assessing the risk of petroleum prospects is described. The methodology is based in a fuzzy-probabilistic representation of uncertain geological knowledge where the risk can be seen as a stochastic variable whose probability distribution counts on a codified geological argumentation. The risk of each geological factor is calculated as a fuzzy set through a fuzzy system and then associated with a probability interval. Then the risk of the whole prospect is calculated using simulation and fitted to a beta probability distribution. Finally, historical and direct hydrocarbon indicators data are incorporated in the model. The methodology is implemented in a prototype software tool called RCSUEX ("Certainty Representation of the Exploratory Success"). The results show that the method can be applied in systematizing the arguing and measuring the probability of success of a petroleum accumulation discovery.
机译：石油勘探是一项经济活动，每年投资数十亿美元。尽管进行了这些巨大的投资，但仍被认为是不确定情况下决策的经典示例。本文提出了一种新的混合模糊概率方法，并描述了一种用于评估石油前景风险的软件工具的实现。该方法基于不确定概率地质知识的模糊概率表示，其中风险可以看作是随机变量，其概率分布取决于编码的地质论证。通过模糊系统将每个地质因素的风险计算为一个模糊集，然后与一个概率区间相关联。然后，使用模拟计算整个潜在客户的风险，并将其拟合到beta概率分布。最后，将历史和直接烃指标数据纳入模型。该方法在称为RCSUEX（“探索性成功的确定性表示”）的原型软件工具中实现。结果表明，该方法可用于系统化论证和测量石油成藏发现成功的可能性。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号