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A causal analytical method for group decision-making under fuzzy environment

机译：模糊环境下群体决策的因果分析方法

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Causal analysis largely influences the effectiveness of decision-making and the productivity of actions. The complex relationship between cause and effect as well as the fuzzy nature of human life make the casual analysis difficult. In this paper, we develop a fuzzy DEMATEL method for group decision-making to gather group ideas and analyze the cause-effect relationship of complex problems in fuzzy environments. Procedures of the fuzzy DEMATEL method are then proposed. Using the fuzzy DEMATEL procedures, the involved criteria of a system (or subsystem) are separated into the cause and effect groups for helping decision-makers focus on those criteria that provide great influence. An empirical study applies the proposed fuzzy DEMATEL method to the R&D project selection of a Taiwanese company. The result shows that, within the cause group, the criterion of "probability of technical success" is the most important factor for R&D project selection, whereas the "strategic fit" and "potential size of market" have the best effect on the other criteria. By contrast, the "net present value" is the most easily improved of the effect group criteria.
机译：因果分析在很大程度上影响决策的有效性和行动的生产率。因果关系之间的复杂关系以及人类生活的模糊性质，使得随意分析变得困难。在本文中，我们开发了一种用于群体决策的模糊DEMATEL方法，以收集群体思想并分析模糊环境中复杂问题的因果关系。然后提出了模糊DEMATEL方法的程序。使用模糊的DEMATEL程序，将系统（或子系统）的相关标准分为因果组，以帮助决策者集中精力提供具有重大影响力的那些标准。实证研究将提出的模糊DEMATEL方法应用于台湾公司的研发项目选择。结果表明，在原因类别中，“技术成功概率”标准是研发项目选择的最重要因素，而“战略契合度”和“潜在市场规模”对其他标准的影响最大。 。相反，“净现值”是效果组标准中最容易改善的。

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