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首页> 外文期刊>Fibres & textiles in Eastern Europe >Prediction of Turkey's Denim Trousers Export Using Artificial Neural Networks and the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model
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Prediction of Turkey's Denim Trousers Export Using Artificial Neural Networks and the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model

机译：基于人工神经网络和自回归综合移动平均模型的土耳其牛仔长裤出口预测

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摘要

In this study, Turkey's denim trouser export was predicted using ANN and ARIMA models. ANN models were composed from the import of denim trousers, the minimum wage, the price of cotton, electricity, and water, the value of TRY against USD, the credit usage of ready-made clothing enterprises, export credits, the real effective exchange rate, brands of denim trousers, and the denim trouser Balasa Index. It is observed that the best prediction is provided by MLP, the second - with ERNN and the third - with ARIMA. The reason why the export of denim trousers is not completely modeled can be explained by the economic downturn, which began in 2008 and still continues. However, it is clearly seen that ANN models predict more successfully than ARIMA ones.
机译：在这项研究中，使用ANN和ARIMA模型预测了土耳其的牛仔长裤出口。人工神经网络模型由进口牛仔长裤，最低工资，棉花，电力和水的价格，TRY对USD的价值，成衣企业的信贷使用，出口信贷，实际有效汇率组成，牛仔长裤品牌以及牛仔长裤Balasa Index。可以看出，最佳预测是由MLP提供的，第二个是ERNN，第三个是ARIMA。始于2008年且至今仍在持续的经济低迷可以解释为什么牛仔布长裤的出口未完全建模。但是，可以清楚地看到，ANN模型比ARIMA模型更成功。

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