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A probabilistic occupant evacuation model for fire emergencies using Monte Carlo methods

机译：基于蒙特卡洛方法的火灾紧急情况下人员疏散模型

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摘要

The paper proposes a probabilistic occupant evacuation model for fire emergencies using Monte Carlo methods and then integrates the model into the fire risk analysis model CUrisk. The evacuation model uses a coarse network approach to describe a building and an individual perspective to represent occupants. The Monte Carlo methods repeat random variables including the occupants' gender, age, speed, exit selection, pre-evacuation time, and distance to be traveled to exit the initial compartment with uniform distributions. The model produces results similar to those generated by deterministic models for cases dominated by deterministic factors, and gives results covering the possible ranges of outputs for cases controlled by random characteristics. The validation of the model against Test 9 in Guidelines for Evacuation Analysis for New and Existing Passenger Ships shows that predicted evacuation times are between the results given by Pathfinder 2009 and FDS+EVAC. They are also in agreement with the expectations for the test. The application of the model to the Station nightclub fire produces evacuation times covering or similar to those given by Pathfinder 2009, buildingEXODUS, and Simulex for the fire drill mode, and the percentages of remaining occupants in good agreement with the real fire consequences.
机译：本文提出了一种使用蒙特卡洛方法的火灾紧急情况下的人员疏散模型，然后将该模型集成到火灾风险分析模型CUrisk中。疏散模型使用粗糙的网络方法来描述建筑物，并以个人视角来代表居住者。蒙特卡洛方法重复随机变量，包括乘员的性别，年龄，速度，出口选择，撤离前时间和离开初始车厢的行进距离，且分布均匀。对于由确定性因素主导的案例，该模型产生的结果与由确定性模型生成的结果相似，并给出覆盖由随机特征控制的案例的可能输出范围的结果。针对新客船和现有客船的疏散分析指南中的测试9对模型进行的验证表明，预计的疏散时间介于Pathfinder 2009和FDS + EVAC给出的结果之间。他们也符合测试的期望。该模型在车站夜总会火灾中的应用会产生疏散时间，该疏散时间与Pathfinder 2009，buildingEXODUS和Simulex为消防演习模式提供的疏散时间相近或相近，而剩余乘员的百分比与实际火灾后果完全吻合。

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  • 来源
    《Fire Safety Journal》 |2013年第5期|15-24|共10页
  • 作者

    Xia Zhang; Xiao Li; George Hadjisophocleous;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Carleton University, 1125 Colonel By Drive, Ottawa, ON, Canada K1S 5B6;

    Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Carleton University, 1125 Colonel By Drive, Ottawa, ON, Canada K1S 5B6;

    Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Carleton University, 1125 Colonel By Drive, Ottawa, ON, Canada K1S 5B6;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    Occupant evacuation model; Probabilistic model; Monte Carlo methods; Fire; Emergency;

    机译：乘员疏散模型;概率模型蒙特卡洛方法;火;紧急情况;

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