John kenneth galbraith once said, "economists predict not because they know but because they are asked." At the start of every year economists, analysts and commentators venture forth with their predictions. I ignore their pronouncements because they have little, if any, accountability. These pundits seldom have to explain why they were right or wrong. FORBES, however, does not let me off so lightly. By the magazine's accounting, my 2007 stock picks last year lost 1.1%; equal sums invested in the S&P 500 on the same dates would have left you with a 1.8% gain. (In this calculation my picks, but not the benchmark, are debited for a hypothetical 1% trading cost.) My best recommendation was Google, up 50%, followed by Apple, up 42%. The worst was New Century Financial; the subprime lender lost its entire value and now is in Chapter 11. Next worst was New York Times, down 33%.
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