Recovery-Then Big Inflation

Rich Karlgaard

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Recovery-Then Big Inflation

机译：复苏然后大通胀

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Brian wesbury, chief economist at first trust advisors, sees a quick V-shaped recovery. The economy "fell off a cliff" in September, which will likely lead to a 3% contraction in the fourth quarter, he says. If so, that would be the worst quarter since 1982, a recession year that produced 10.8% unemployment at the peak.rnThe current awful fourth quarter is hitting Main Street especially hard. One anecdote, among millions: The guy who cuts my hair, for a price more than that at Supercuts but less than that which John Edwards pays, said that since mid-September his male clientele has bailed to Supercuts. His female clients have stretched their MTBC (mean time between colorings). I visit the snipper once a month. His shop was full in mid-September, nearly empty in mid-October.rnSounds grim, and it is. Why, then, does Wesbury's prediction of a quick V-shaped recovery have any merit? Most economists, after all, see a long L-shaped recovery-two years or more of recession or punky growth. And the pessimists have been right of late.

机译：第一信托顾问公司的首席经济学家布莱恩·韦斯伯里（Brian Wesbury）看到了V型经济的快速复苏。他说，9月份经济“跌落悬崖”，这很可能导致第四季度收缩3％。如果是这样的话，那将是自1982年以来最糟糕的一个季度，那是一个衰退年，失业率最高时导致10.8％的失业。在数百万人中有一个轶事：那个为我剪头发的人的价格比Supercuts的价格高，但比John Edwards付的价格还低，他说，自9月中旬以来，他的男性客户就一直委托Supercuts。他的女性客户延长了MTBC（两次着色之间的平均时间）。我每个月拜访鲷鱼一次。他的商店在9月中旬满员，在10月中旬几乎是空的。那么，为什么韦斯伯里对V型快速恢复的预测有什么价值呢？毕竟，大多数经济学家看到了漫长的L型复苏-两年或更长时间的衰退或缓慢的增长。悲观主义者最近是对的。

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《Forbes》 |2008年第10期|25|共1页
作者
Rich Karlgaard;
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收录信息美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);
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正文语种 eng
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7. Financial Development and the Distributional Effects of Monetary Policy Do the distributional consequences of monetary policy depend on the extent of financial development? Should optimal monetary policy vary across countries? In order to answer these questions, we develop a monetary growth production model with heterogeneous agents. In our economy, optimal policy needs to weigh the effects of policy across two groups — capital owners and individuals who hold liquid assets. While banks help limit the exposure to inflation, there are limits because money alleviates the frictions of private information and limited communication. In this environment, we compare two economies that are identical in every aspect except for their level of financial development. In a country with limited financial development, a stock market is absent. In the other, an equity market is active. In either economy, inflation adversely affects capital formation and output. Individuals who hold liquid assets are always adversely affected by inflation, but the attitude of capital owners depends on the level of financial development. In particular, in the presence of a stock market, the impact of inflation on the welfare of capital owners is non-monotonic. Nevertheless, optimal monetary policy is always more conservative at higher levels of financial development. [O] . TINA M. Edgar A. Ghossoub, TINA M. Robert R. Reedy 100

机译：金融发展和货币政策的分配效应货币政策的分配后果是否取决于金融发展的程度？各国的最优货币政策应该不同吗？为了回答这些问题，我们开发了一个具有异构代理的货币增长生产模型。在我们的经济中，最优政策需要权衡两个群体的政策效应 - 资本所有者和持有流动资产的个人。虽然银行帮助限制通胀风险，但存在限制，因为资金减轻了私人信息的摩擦和有限的沟通。在这种环境下，我们比较两个经济体在各个方面都是相同的，除了它们的金融发展水平。在金融发展有限的国家，缺乏股票市场。另一方面，股票市场活跃。在任一经济体中，通胀都会对资本形成和产出产生不利影响持有流动资产的个人总是受到通货膨胀的不利影响，但资本所有者的态度取决于金融发展的水平。特别是，在股票市场存在的情况下，通货膨胀对资本所有者福利的影响是非单调的。尽管如此，在较高的金融发展水平下，最优货币政策总是更加保守。

Recovery-Then Big Inflation

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