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Conventional Un-Wisdom

机译:传统的智慧

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摘要

What moves the stock market? it's laways an unforeseeable combination of factors. Sure, trends crop up and continue for a while, but looking at the past for patterns isn't fruitful every time. Things change. While interest rates are important, they sometimes are less of a force than at others. Psychology, which is very hard to measure, is critical. What seems to matter is not what investors know but what they think they know. What doesn't matter is the conventional wisdom of so-called market experts. As the market moves sideways, you keep hearing learned commentary that says the second half will be down because earnings cannot possibly stay as strong as they are now. Sporadic economic indicators, like retail sales dropping 1% in June, appear to bear them out. Don't buy any of these glib assessments.
机译:是什么动摇了股市?这是不可预见的因素组合。当然,趋势会出现并持续一段时间,但是每次查看过去的模式都不会富有成果。事情会改变的。尽管利率很重要,但有时利率比其他利率低。很难衡量的心理学至关重要。似乎重要的不是投资者知道什么,而是他们认为自己知道的东西。没关系的是所谓的市场专家的传统智慧。随着市场的横盘整理,您不断听到有评论说,下半年将下跌,因为收益可能无法保持现在的强劲水平。零散的经济指标,例如6月零售额下降1%,似乎可以证明这一点。不要购买任何这些glib评估。

著录项

  • 来源
    《Forbes》 |2004年第3期|p.130|共1页
  • 作者

    Laszio Birinyl Jr.;

  • 作者单位

    Birinyi Associates, a Westport, Conn.;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 世界经济问题;
  • 关键词

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