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Cities futures. A critical assessment of how future studies are applied to cities

机译：城市期货。对未来研究如何应用于城市的批判性评估

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Purpose - This paper aims to assess recent foresight exercises applied to cities by evaluating three major issues. Have foresight practitioners understood cities complexity? Have urban planners used adequate tools to generate plausible future visions? Are city policy makers using foresight studies to limit urban uncertainty? Design/methodology/approach - In total, 20 city foresight examples were selected which either have international relevance or which constitute good examples of future-oriented initiatives. Case studies were classified into five taxonomies: European Union initiatives; local initiatives; academic initiatives; corporate initiatives; and architectural initiatives. A set of assessment criteria was established: city complexity conceptualization; methodological approach; and study impact. Findings - Preliminary research outcomes show growing doubts about the appropriateness of the foresight tools used in cities and about the competency of foresight practitioners in understanding the complex and dynamic nature of contemporary cities. Furthermore, policy makers do not seem to grasp the potential of foresight to formulate urban strategies. Research limitations/implications - Some of the initiatives studied are relatively recent, so impact analysis has been limited by available data. Mostly, secondary documented sources were used to validate cases' assessment. Research suggests a number of areas in which foresight studies may have a practical application to the urban realm. Originality/value - The value of the present work lies in the effort for assessing and improving forward-looking activities undertaken at cities through a set of criteria which take into consideration the complexity and diversity of contemporary cities.
机译：目的-本文旨在通过评估三个主要问题来评估最近应用于城市的远见演习。有远见的从业者是否了解城市的复杂性？城市规划者是否使用了足够的工具来产生合理的未来愿景？城市决策者是否在使用前瞻性研究来限制城市的不确定性？设计/方法/方法-总共选择了20个城市预见性示例，这些示例具有国际意义或构成面向未来计划的良好示例。案例研究分为五个分类法：欧洲联盟倡议；地方倡议；学术举措；公司举措；和建筑计划。建立了一套评估标准：城市复杂性概念化；方法论方法；并研究影响。研究结果-初步研究结果表明，人们越来越怀疑城市中使用的预见性工具是否合适，以及对预见性从业者了解现代城市复杂性和动态性的能力的怀疑。此外，政策制定者似乎没有掌握制定城市战略的远见。研究的局限性/含意-研究的一些举措是相对较新的，因此影响分析受到可用数据的限制。大多数情况下，使用二手文件记录的来源来验证案例的评估。研究表明，在许多领域中，前瞻性研究可能在城市领域有实际应用。原创性/价值-当前工作的价值在于通过一系列标准来评估和改善在城市开展的前瞻性活动，这些标准考虑了当代城市的复杂性和多样性。

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