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Exploring participatory scenario and storyline building for sustainable urban futures - the case of China in 2050

机译：探索参与式情景和故事情节建设以实现可持续的城市未来-以2050年的中国为例

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Purpose - Drawing on a EU-funded research project on urbanisation in China and Europe (URBACHINA), the purpose of this inquiry is to explore the potential of foresight - through visionary scenarios and related participatory processes - in promoting learning and sustainable futures in China's centrally planned context. Our research explores the use of backcasting, of Donella Meadows' "levers" and Paul Raskin's "proximate-ultimate drivers" and of archetypal worldviews to further our understanding of how we think about the future, and of the tension between transition scenarios and transformative, paradigmatic or deep change. Design/methodology/approach - A review of recent foresight studies and literature provides an overview of the latest approaches: in particular the methods, scope, process, level of participation, themes discussed and wild cards considered. Building on this, the inquiry designs and implements a participatory, normative and qualitative scenario building to explore sustainable urban futures for China, adapting the elements of Joseph Voros' basic foresight process to include a total of nine steps, with five workshops, two international surveys, an adapted backcasting step and internal consistency mechanisms. Findings - The combination of a participatory iterative process with normative approaches to envisioning, helped question assumptions and deeply ingrained development models, as well as the narrow space for "alternatives" resulting from China's centralised, top-down planning and decision-making. The experience confirms the power of scenario/storyline building in helping reflect and question strategic policy choices and enrich urban policy debates. The process successfully proposed a number of steps that ensured triangulation of the envisioning outcomes and additional learning also through backcasting. Finally, the research shows a clear link between the development of scenarios space, the debate on transition and transformative futures and archetypal worldviews, which were shown to be stable even after decades. Originality/value - The URBACHINA approach to the specific challenge of sustainable urbanisation in China applies a strong normative component combined to more locally accepted exploratory methods and introduces a participatory approach to all key stages of scenario building. This represents an innovative contribution to the country's foresight practice and the results help Chinese decision makers to reflect on the wider sustainability implications of their urban strategy. The inquiry deepens our understanding of the use of proximate and ultimate drivers of change and of the tension between transition and transformation pathways to our future.
机译：目的-借鉴欧盟资助的中国和欧洲城市化研究项目（URBACHINA），本次调查的目的是通过远见卓识的情景和相关的参与过程，探索远见的潜力，以促进中部地区的学习和可持续未来计划的上下文。我们的研究探索了反向播报，唐纳德·梅多斯（Donella Meadows）的“杠杆”和保罗·拉斯金（Paul Raskin）的“近乎最终的驾驶员”以及原型世界观的使用，以进一步加深我们对未来的看法以及过渡情景和变革性之间的紧张关系，范式或深刻的变化。设计/方法/方法-回顾最近的远见研究和文献，提供对最新方法的概述：尤其是方法，范围，过程，参与程度，讨论的主题和考虑的通配符。在此基础上，调查设计并实施了参与性，规范性和定性的情景构建，以探索中国的可持续城市未来，并调整了约瑟夫·沃罗斯基本预见过程的要素，包括总共九个步骤，五个研讨会，两个国际调查，经过调整的回播步骤和内部一致性机制。调查结果-参与式迭代过程与规范性构想方法的结合，有助于质疑假设和根深蒂固的发展模型，以及中国的集中，自上而下的计划和决策所产生的“替代方案”狭窄的空间。经验证实了情景/故事情节建设在帮助思考和质疑战略政策选择以及丰富城市政策辩论方面的力量。该过程成功地提出了一些步骤，这些步骤可确保对构想结果进行三角测量，并通过回播来确保额外的学习。最后，研究表明，情景空间的发展，对转型和变革性未来的辩论以及原型世界观之间有着明确的联系，即使在几十年后，这种观点仍然是稳定的。原创性/价值-针对中国可持续城市化的具体挑战的URBACHINA方法将强大的规范性成分与更多本地接受的探索性方法相结合，并为情景构建的所有关键阶段引入了参与性方法。这是对中国远见卓识的创新贡献，其结果有助于中国决策者反思其城市战略对可持续发展的广泛影响。该调查加深了我们对变化的直接驱动力和最终驱动力的使用以及通往我们未来的过渡和转型路径之间的张力的理解。

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