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Scenario-based forecasting on commercial potential of SDHWS

机译：基于场景的SDHWS商业潜力预测

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Purpose - The purpose of this study is to show how scenario-based forecasting can give a better understanding of future commercial potential of a newly developed technology. This study aims to bridge the existing gaps in technology commercialization process for various projects supported under innovation support schemes in India. Design/methodology/approach - The scope of this study is to understand the commercial potential and future deployment prospect of "sun direct hot water system (SDHWS)". Scenarios have been drawn using "cone of plausibility" method and the commercial potential forecasted under different scenarios using arithmetic and linear regression forecasting tool. Findings - The SDHWS is an incremental innovation but has great potential to overcome major constraints and barriers associated with existing solar water heater (SWH) technologies. Among the three scenarios drawn, plausible scenario is most likely to happen in future. The SDHWS is technically and economically capable of replacing existing conventional systems of SWHs. Research limitations/implications - The study is limited to developing alternate qualitative scenarios and, further, an attempt to quantify the commercial potential. Various assumptions have been taken because of non-availability of past data on SDHWS technology. Originality/value - Scenario-based forecasting to understand commercial potential for innovative technology is a new approach. The adoption of such insight and analysis would brighten the chance of SDHWS technology to reach the market.
机译：目的-这项研究的目的是说明基于情景的预测如何更好地了解新开发技术的未来商业潜力。这项研究旨在弥合印度创新支持计划支持的各种项目在技术商业化过程中的现有差距。设计/方法/方法-本研究的范围是了解“太阳直接热水系统（SDHWS）”的商业潜力和未来部署前景。使用“似然锥”方法绘制了方案，并使用算术和线性回归预测工具在不同方案下预测了商业潜力。调查结果-SDHWS是一项渐进式创新，但在克服与现有太阳能热水器（SWH）技术相关的主要限制和障碍方面具有巨大潜力。在所绘制的三个方案中，合理的方案最有可能在未来发生。 SDHWS在技术上和经济上都能够替代现有的常规SWH系统。研究的局限性/意义-该研究仅限于开发其他定性场景，并且还试图量化商业潜力。由于无法获得有关SDHWS技术的过去数据，因此采取了各种假设。创意/价值-基于场景的预测以了解创新技术的商业潜力是一种新方法。这种见解和分析的采用将为SDHWS技术进入市场提供更多机会。

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