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Thinking oriented towards the future - key to prosperity and sustainable development?

机译：面向未来的思维-繁荣与可持续发展的关键？

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Purpose - The aim of this paper is to discuss key factors of long-term (sustainable) development and prosperity. There are three basic guidelines that seek explanation: dependence theory, the influence of geographical and environmental factors and cultural determinism. But there are perhaps three other important factors for successful development: education, caring for public space and future oriented thinking. Design/methodology/approach - Why are some nations poor and some are rich ? The answer might lie somewhere else other than in the known theories of development. Or rather, maybe every development theory has some truth in itself, but what we need is to create some inventive synthesis. To formulate such synthesis, calculation of future oriented thinking index can help us to understand better why some communities and nations are poor and some are rich. Perhaps future oriented thinking is the main key to prosperity and success. Findings - If future oriented thinking is an important factor to prosperity and success, then an instrument is needed to measure it - the Future Oriented Thinking Index (FOTI). Future Oriented Thinking Index is by methodological approach close to the State of the Future Index (SOFI) developed by Theodore J. Gordon and the Millennium Project. But FOTI should focus more on identifying how people are able to take into account future challenges and behave according to them, less on "state of the future" (measuring whether a situation will improve or deteriorate). Tentatively 23 indicators are proposed to calculate FOTI. Originality/value - Many economists, environmentalists and other experts have long been cooperating in designing an alternative indicator to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) capable of better capturing the long-term development of society and not just economic performance in a narrow sense. Future Oriented Thinking Index calculated for individual countries as an arithmetical average of 23 selected variables (individual indicators, all available from publicly accessible sources) is a new approach to complement such indexes as the Gross Domestic Product, the Human Development Index, the Environmental Sustainability Index, or the State of the Future Index.
机译：目的-本文的目的是讨论长期（可持续）发展和繁荣的关键因素。有3个基本的准则寻求解释：依赖理论，地理和环境因素的影响以及文化决定论。但是，成功发展可能还有其他三个重要因素：教育，关爱公共空间和面向未来的思维。设计/方法论/方法-为什么有些国家贫穷而有些国家富裕？答案可能不在已知的发展理论中。或者更确切地说，也许每种发展理论本身都有一些真理，但是我们需要的是创造一些创造性的综合。为了形成这样的综合，计算面向未来的思维指数可以帮助我们更好地理解为什么某些社区和国家是穷国而有些是富国。面向未来的思维也许是繁荣与成功的主要关键。发现-如果面向未来的思维是繁荣与成功的重要因素，那么就需要一种衡量它的工具-面向未来的思维指数（FOTI）。面向未来的思维指数采用的方法学方法接近西奥多·J·戈登和千禧项目开发的未来状态指数（SOFI）。但是FOTI应该更多地集中于确定人们如何能够考虑到未来的挑战并根据这些挑战行事，而不是“未来的状态”（衡量情况是否会改善或恶化）。暂时提出了23个指标来计算FOTI。原创性/价值-许​​多经济学家，环保主义者和其他专家一直在合作设计国内生产总值（GDP）的替代指标，该指标能够更好地把握社会的长期发展，而不仅仅是狭义上的经济表现。以23个选定变量（单个指标，全部可从公共渠道获得）的算术平均值计算得出的面向未来的思维指数，是一种补充国内生产总值，人类发展指数，环境可持续性指数等指数的新方法，或未来状态指数。

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