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Scenario planning for climate strategies development by integrating group Delphi, AHP and dynamic fuzzy cognitive maps

机译：通过整合德尔福，层次分析法和动态模糊认知图来制定气候战略的情景规划

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Purpose - The purpose of the paper is to present the common use of the Delphi method, the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and dynamic fuzzy cognitive maps for the development of a future scenario in correlation with climate warming.rnDesign/methodology/approach - A combination of the Delphi method, the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and dynamic fuzzy cognitive maps was employed to construct a future scenario as a learning device.rnFindings - Based on the data, the future is not going to be so bad but also not very attractive even if it is assumed that human consciousness about global warming issues will remain high. After a few years or so it will be possible to stop negative climate processes but not possible to fix the problem in the sense that the situation we have now can be substantially improved.rnPractical implications - This paper is of interest for foresight practitioners and policy makers who wantrnto employ a hybrid approach to scenario development.rnOriginality/value - The paper is the first to try to use a combination of different methods for scenariorndevelopment related to climate change.
机译：目的-本文的目的是介绍Delphi方法，层次分析法（AHP）和动态模糊认知图的通用用法，以开发与气候变暖相关的未来情景.rn设计/方法/方法-A将德尔菲方法，层次分析法（AHP）和动态模糊认知图相结合，构成了一种作为学习设备的未来情景。rn发现-根据数据，未来不会很糟，但也不会很糟即使假设人们对全球变暖问题的意识将保持很高的水平也很有吸引力。几年后，有可能停止不利的气候过程，但就目前的状况可以得到大幅度改善而言，不可能解决该问题。实用意义-本文对有远见的从业者和政策制定者很感兴趣谁想采用混合方法进行情景开发。原始性/价值-本文是第一个尝试将不同方法组合用于与气候变化有关的情景开发的人。

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