...
  • 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Foresight >Military technology development: a future-based approach using scenarios
【24h】

Military technology development: a future-based approach using scenarios

机译：军事技术开发：使用方案的基于未来的方法

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

Purpose - The threat environment countries face is a dynamic one, with many emerging technologies. This paper presents unique challenges as countries evaluate which technologies to pursue in support of national security. Rather than addressing a broad range of strategic options, this paper limits its scope to a single type of aircraft. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to demonstrate a methodology to counter the most likely future threats to a long-range strike aircraft.rnDesign/methodology/approach - To address future threats, the paper examined the most likely course of technology development within the context of various alternative futures. To decompose general threat scenarios into specific risk scenarios, the risk filtering, ranking, and management (RFRM) framework was used. After identifying the most significant risk scenarios, decision tree analysis provided insight into whether or not to pursue a given technology (e.g. electromagnetic pulse hardening, redundant control structures, etc.).rnFindings - It is found the RFRM and decision tree tools to be very complementary in developing a credible scenario-based decision model that incorporates expected technology development and alternative futures.rnPractical implications - The paper is not intended to be a technical report on advanced technologies or predict future technologies and the world geopolitical situation. However, the approach explored should serve as a foundation for more detailed analysis that incorporates formal studies, technology demonstrations, and additional research into a coherent decision structure that can be evaluated and adjusted over time.rnOriginality/value - The paper combines the RFRM and decision tree tools to examine concepts from both technology development and alternative futures.
机译：目的-各国面临的威胁环境是动态的，具有许多新兴技术。当各国评估支持国家安全的技术时，本文提出了独特的挑战。本文没有讨论广泛的战略选择，而是将其范围限制为单一类型的飞机。因此，本文的目的是演示一种应对远程打击飞机未来最有可能面临的威胁的方法。设计/方法论/方法-为应对未来的威胁，本文研究了航空器内技术发展的最可能过程。各种替代期货的背景。为了将一般威胁情景分解为特定的风险情景，使用了风险过滤，排名和管理（RFRM）框架。在确定了最重要的风险情况之后，决策树分析提供了关于是否采用特定技术（例如电磁脉冲硬化，冗余控制结构等）的见解。rn发现-RFRM和决策树工具非常实用在开发结合了预期的技术发展和替代未来的可靠的基于场景的决策模型时将起到补充作用。实践意义-本文的目的不在于提供有关先进技术的技术报告，也不旨在预测未来技术和世界地缘政治形势。但是，探索的方法应作为更详细分析的基础，该分析将正式研究，技术演示和其他研究整合到一个可以随时间进行评估和调整的一致决策结构中。rn原创性/价值-本文结合了RFRM和决策树工具，用于检查技术开发和替代期货中的概念。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号