• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Foresight >Towards a customized foresight model on 'disaster risk management' in developing countries
【24h】

Towards a customized foresight model on 'disaster risk management' in developing countries

机译：建立发展中国家“灾难风险管理”的定制远景模型

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

Purpose - The human efforts to be prepared better for the future challenges of natural disasters go back ages. Natural disasters occur when a natural event, such as an earthquake, triggers the social vulnerability. These natural disasters kill thousands of people worldwide annually and cause economic losses in millions of dollars. Moreover, the global cost of natural disasters has increased substantially, and mega-disasters occur when the need for recovery truly becomes national or international. There are several trends in nature and society, which suggest that this pattern may continue, with mega-disasters occurring more frequently in the future. In the past 100 years, the number of disasters and the number of people affected by these disasters have exponentially up surged. Thus, there is no other way to improve preparedness in a meaningful or diverse future-oriented manner. Design/methodology/approach - This paper focuses on how to design and customize a conceptual foresight model in "disaster risk management" in Iran, and offers an executive model to help decisionmakers in disaster management, through which an appropriate practical framework for the implementation of foresight has been developed. Finding - The model has presented a possible framework for implementing a foresight practice within the context of disaster management. This paper particularly addresses different elements of a customized model, developed through a substantial literature review and comparative study for defining the suitable model in the disaster management context. The final model is validated using two rounds of the Delphi method, with the participation of national disaster management experts, practitioners and scientists. Research limitations/implications - Although the whole model could be used all around the world, the main source of data validating the proposed model is limited to the expert's opinions in a developing country (I. R. Iran.) and the geographical conditions of Iran are considered as a core of attention in response to natural disasters. Based on the indicators for choosing Delphi participants and experts, only 43 qualified experts are selected to validate the model. The main focus of this research is on natural disasters issues. Practical implications - This study showed that while there has been a scattered global effort to recognize the increasing uncertainties in diverse disciplines, very little work in academic foresight has been undertaken to identify how it could be implemented. In particular, a series of factors in foresight processes is identified based on the comparative study and some additional elements are added to precisely identify the disaster management context and the most suitable model for national foresight implementation in disaster management. Originality/value - The main value of this research paper is to clarify the exact relationship between the two interdisciplinary fields; the relationship between the key concepts of "futures studies" and "disaster management" has been thoroughly established. Also, a specific conceptual model for enriching the "preforesight" stage and selecting a proper "foresight approach" in "disaster management" is provided. This model has been validated through two rounds of the Delphi method. Finally, a cumulative framework of foresight patterns that includes the new model is presented to be applied in areas especially related to "natural disaster management".
机译：目的-为更好地为自然灾害的未来挑战做好准备的人类努力源远流长。当自然事件（例如地震）触发社会脆弱性时，就会发生自然灾害。这些自然灾害每年在全世界造成数千人死亡，并造成数百万美元的经济损失。此外，全球自然灾害的代价已大大增加，当对恢复的需求真正成为国家或国际需求时，就会发生特大灾害。自然和社会存在几种趋势，这表明这种模式可能会持续下去，未来特大灾害将更加频繁。在过去的100年中，灾难的数量和受这些灾难影响的人数呈指数级增长。因此，没有其他方法可以以有意义的或多样化的面向未来的方式来改善准备。设计/方法/方法-本文重点介绍如何在伊朗的“灾害风险管理”中设计和定制概念性的预见模型，并提供一种执行模型来帮助灾害管理的决策者，从而为灾害管理提供适当的实践框架。实施远见卓识。调查结果-该模型提供了一个可能的框架，用于在灾难管理的背景下实施预见性实践。本文特别针对定制模型的不同元素，这些模型是通过大量文献综述和比较研究而开发的，用于在灾难管理环境中定义合适的模型。在国家灾难管理专家，从业人员和科学家的参与下，使用两轮Delphi方法验证了最终模型。研究的局限性/意义-尽管整个模型可以在世界各地使用，但验证所提出模型的主要数据来源仅限于发展中国家（伊朗伊斯兰共和国）专家的意见，并且伊朗的地理条件被认为是应对自然灾害的关注核心。根据选择Delphi参与者和专家的指标，仅选择了43名合格专家来验证模型。这项研究的主要重点是自然灾害问题。实际意义-这项研究表明，尽管人们在全球范围内努力分散认识各种学科中不断增加的不确定性，但在学术预见方面几乎没有开展工作来确定如何实施。特别是，在比较研究的基础上，确定了预见过程中的一系列因素，并添加了一些其他元素以精确识别灾难管理环境和最适合国家实施灾难管理的预见模型。原创性/价值-该研究论文的主要价值是阐明两个交叉学科领域之间的确切关系； “未来研究”和“灾害管理”的关键概念之间的关系已经得到彻底建立。而且，提供了用于丰富“预见”阶段并在“灾难管理”中选择适当的“预见方法”的特定概念模型。该模型已通过两轮Delphi方法验证。最后，提出了包括新模型在内的预见性模式的累积框架，将其应用于特别是与“自然灾害管理”相关的领域。

著录项

  • 来源
    《Foresight》 |2018年第5期|467-487|共21页
  • 作者

    Ardeshir Sayah Mofazali; Katayoun Jahangiri;

  • 作者单位

    Academic Center for Education Culture and Research, Tehran, Islamic Republic of Iran;

    Shaheed Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Islamic Republic of Iran;

  • 收录信息
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Foresight;

    机译：预见性;

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号