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Foresight of cyber security threat drivers and affecting technologies

机译：网络安全威胁驱动程序和影响技术的预见

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摘要

Purpose - The cyber security industry emerged rapidly in recent years due to mounting cyber threats and increasing cyber hacking activities. Research on emerging technologies emphasizes the risks and sometimes neglects to address the potential positive contribution to cyber security. The purpose of this study is to conduct a relatively balanced long-term foresight study to elicit major significant threat drivers and to identify emerging technologies that are likely to have a significant impact on defense and attack capabilities in cyber security. Design/methodology/approach - The main instruments used in this study were horizon scanning and an online survey among subject-matter experts that assessed emerging threats and the potential impact of several emerging technologies on cyber defense capabilities and cyber attack capabilities. Findings - An expert survey shows that cyber resilience, homomorphic encryption and blockchain may be considered as technologies contributing mainly to defense capabilities. On the other hand, Internet of Things, biohacking and human machine interface (HMI) and autonomous technologies add mainly to attack capabilities. In the middle, we find autonomous technologies, quantum computing and artificial intelligence that contribute to defense, as well as to attack capabilities, with roughly similar impact on both. Originality/value - This study adds to the current research a balanced long-term view and experts' assessment of negative and positive impacts of emerging technologies, including their time to maturity and consensus levels. Two new Likert scale measures were applied to measure the potential impact of emerging technologies on cyber security, thus enabling the classification of the results into four groups (net positive, net negative, positive-positive and negative-negative).
机译：目的-由于不断增加的网络威胁和不断增加的网络黑客活动，近年来网络安全行业迅速发展。对新兴技术的研究强调风险，有时忽略了对网络安全的潜在积极贡献。这项研究的目的是进行一个相对平衡的长期预见性研究，以找出主要的重大威胁驱动因素，并确定可能对网络安全中的防御和攻击能力产生重大影响的新兴技术。设计/方法/方法-这项研究中使用的主要手段是视野扫描和主题专家进行的在线调查，评估了新兴威胁以及几种新兴技术对网络防御能力和网络攻击能力的潜在影响。调查结果-一项专家调查显示，网络弹性，同态加密和区块链可被视为主要有助于防御能力的技术。另一方面，物联网，生物黑客和人机界面（HMI）以及自主技术主要增加了攻击能力。在中间，我们发现自主技术，量子计算和人工智能有助于防御以及攻击能力，两者的影响大致相似。原创性/价值-这项研究为当前研究增加了平衡的长期观点，并且专家对新兴技术的负面和正面影响（包括其成熟时间和共识水平）进行了评估。应用了两项新的李克特量表度量标准来衡量新兴技术对网络安全的潜在影响，从而将结果分为四类（净正数，净负数，正-正数和负-负数）。

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  • 来源
    《Foresight》 |2018年第4期|353-363|共11页
  • 作者

    Yoel Raban; Aharon Hauptman;

  • 作者单位

    Technology and Society Foresight, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel;

    Technology and Society Foresight, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    Foresight;

    机译：预见性;

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