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The futures of the University of Tehran using causal layered analysis

机译：使用因果分层分析的德黑兰大学的未来

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Purpose - Higher education and universities have faced unprecedented and ubiquitous changes. The University of Tehran or "UT," as the leading university in Iran, is not immune to these changes. The purposes of this study is to investigate the current situation and future of the UT and gain insights and possible responses to changes that suit its strengths and potential to progress in an increasingly competitive, complex environment with uncertainties. It identifies deep fundamental underpinnings of the issue and highlights them for policymakers to formulate strategies and future vision of the UT. Design/methodology/approach - Causal layered analysis (CLA) was applied as a framework and the data collected from different sources such as literature reviews, content analysis of rules, regulations and master plans of the university and coded interviews of four different groups of university stakeholders were analyzed. The current system of UT, as well as hidden beliefs, that maintains traditional perceptions about university was mapped. Next, by applying a new recursive process and reverse CLA order, new CLA layers extracted through an expert panel, the layers of CLA based on new metaphors to envision future of UT were backcasted. Findings - The results from CLA layers including litany, system, worldview and metaphor about the current statue of UT show disinterest and inertia against changes, conservative, behind the times and traditional perceptions, and indicate that the UT system is mismatched to the needs of society and stakeholders in the future. The authors articulated alternative perspectives deconstructed from other worldviews so there are new narratives that reframe the issues at hand. The results show that to survive in this fast-paced revolution and competition in higher education, UT should develop scenarios and formulate new strategies. Research limitations/implications - The authors had limited access to a wide range of stakeholders. As the UT is a very big university with so many faculties and departments, to access a pool of experts and top policymakers who were so busy and did not have time to interview inside and outside of university was very hard for the research team. The authors also had limitation to access the internal enactments and decisions of the trustee board of the UT and the financial balance sheets of the university. Originality/value - In this paper, by mixing different methods of futures studies, the authors have shown how to move forward while understanding the perspectives of stakeholders about the future of UT by a new recursive process and reverse CLA order. A supplementary phase was added to improve CLA and to validate the method and results, which were ignored in previous studies.
机译：目的-高等教育和大学面临着前所未有的变化。作为伊朗领先的大学，德黑兰大学或“ UT”不能幸免于这些变化。这项研究的目的是调查UT的现状和未来，并获得洞察力以及对适应其优势的潜力以及对变化的可能响应，以适应在竞争日益激烈，不确定性不断增加的复杂环境中取得进步的潜力。它确定了该问题的深层基础，并为决策者强调这些基础以制定UT的战略和未来愿景。设计/方法/方法-使用因果分层分析（CLA）作为框架，并从不同来源收集数据，例如文献综述，大学规则，法规和总体规划的内容分析以及四组不同大学的编码访谈利益相关者进行了分析。映射了当前的UT系统以及隐藏的信念，这些信念保持了对大学的传统观念。接下来，通过应用新的递归过程和相反的CLA顺序，通过专家小组提取了新的CLA层，从而对基于新隐喻的CLA层进行了回播，以预见UT的未来。调查结果-来自CLA层的结果包括对当前UT雕像的连绵不断，系统，世界观和隐喻显示出对变化，变革，保守，时代和传统观念的无兴趣和惯性，并表明UT系统与社会需求不匹配和未来的利益相关者。作者清楚地表达了从其他世界观中解构出来的替代观点，因此有新的叙述重新构架了眼前的问题。结果表明，为了在这种快节奏的革命和高等教育竞争中生存，UT应该制定情景并制定新的策略。研究的局限性/意义-作者与众多利益相关者的联系有限。由于UT是一所非常庞大的大学，拥有如此众多的院系和系，要访问如此繁忙且没有时间在大学内部和外部进行采访的专家和高层决策者，对于研究团队来说非常困难。作者还具有访问UT的受托机构的内部成文法则和决定以及大学的财务资产负债表的限制。原创性/价值-在本文中，通过混合使用不同的期货研究方法，作者展示了如何在前进的同时，通过新的递归过程和相反的CLA顺序理解利益相关者对UT未来的看法。添加了一个补充阶段以改善CLA并验证方法和结果，而在先前的研究中忽略了这一点。

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