Analyzing prediction market trading behaviour to select Delphi-experts

Simon Kloker; Frederik Klatt; Jan Hoetter; Christof Weinhardt

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Analyzing prediction market trading behaviour to select Delphi-experts

机译：分析预测市场交易行为以选择Delphi专家

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Purpose - The selection of experts for Delphi studies is crucial for the quality of the forecast results and the information taken into account. In the past, this has usually been done by selecting participants according to their reputation, although this approach is questionable in terms of reaching the most knowledgeable participants having new, relevant and valid information. In this context, this paper aims to propose to operate a prediction market alongside Delphi studies and select participants based on their trading behaviour in the market for the Delphi study. Design/methodology/approach - Based on more than three years of historical prediction market trading data, the authors verify attributes that indicate insightful trades, as previously discussed in the finance literature, by using regression and classification trees. Findings - The paper contributes attributes of trading behaviour that are theoretically derived from literature and potentially related to informed traders. These are tested and evaluated on historical prediction market data. Especially, the trading volume, the spread at the moment of trading and the market maker attribute seem to predict informed traders the best. Originality/value - Algorithms based on identified attributes can be used to objectify the selection of experts for Delphi studies with potential gains in terms of the amount of information considered.

机译：目的-选择Delphi研究专家对于预测结果和所考虑信息的质量至关重要。过去，这通常是通过根据参与者的声誉选择参与者来完成的，尽管这种方法在吸引具有新的，相关的和有效的信息的最有知识的参与者方面是有问题的。在这种情况下，本文旨在提议与Delphi研究一起经营预测市场，并根据其在Delphi研究中的市场交易行为选择参与者。设计/方法/方法-基于超过三年的历史预测市场交易数据，作者使用回归树和分类树验证了表明有见地交易的属性，如先前在金融文献中所讨论的。研究结果-本文提供了交易行为的属性，这些属性在理论上是从文献中得出的，并可能与知情交易者有关。这些都是根据历史预测市场数据进行测试和评估的。特别是，交易量，交易时的点差和做市商属性似乎最能预测知情交易者。独创性/价值-基于已识别属性的算法可用于根据所考虑的信息量来选择具有潜在收益的Delphi研究专家。

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来源
《Foresight》 |2018年第4期|364-374|共11页
作者
Simon Kloker; Frederik Klatt; Jan Hoetter; Christof Weinhardt;
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作者单位

Institute of Information Systems and Marketing, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany;

Institute of Information Systems and Marketing, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany;

Institute of Information Systems and Marketing, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany;

Institute of Information Systems and Marketing, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany;

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正文语种 eng
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关键词
Delphi method; Crowd sourcing; Expert selection; Prediction market; Real-time Delphi; Trading behaviour analysis;

机译：德尔菲法众包;专家选择;预测市场;实时Delphi交易行为分析;

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Analyzing prediction market trading behaviour to select Delphi-experts

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