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There is plenty of time at the bottom: the economics, risk and ethics of time compression

机译：底部有很多时间：时间压缩的经济学，风险和伦理

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摘要

Purpose - The speed of computing and other automated processes plays an important role in how the world functions by causing "time compression". This paper aims to review reasons to believe computation will continue to become faster in the future, the economic consequences of speedups and how these affect risk, ethics and governance. Design/methodology/approach - A brief review of science and trends followed by an analysis of consequences. Findings - Current computation is far from the physical limits in terms of processing speed. Algorithmic improvements may be equally powerful but cannot easily be predicted or bounded. Communication and sensing is already at the physical speed limits, although improvements in bandwidth will likely be significant. The value in these speedups lies in productivity gains, timeliness, early arrival of results and cybernetic feedback shifts. However, time compression can lead to loss of control owing to inability to track fast change, emergent or systemic risk and asynchrony. Speedups can also exacerbate inequalities between different agents and reduce safety if there are competitive pressures. Fast decisions are potentially not better decisions, as they may be made on little data. Social implications - The impact on society and the challenge to governance are likely to be profound, requiring adapting new methods for managing fast-moving and technological risks. Originality/value - The speed with which events happen is an important aspect of foresight, not just as a subject of prediction or analysis, but also as a driver of the kinds of dynamics that are possible.
机译：目的-计算和其他自动化过程的速度在通过“时间压缩”引起的世界运转中起着重要作用。本文旨在回顾各种理由，这些理由认为，未来的计算将继续变得更快，加速带来的经济后果以及这些后果如何影响风险，道德和治理。设计/方法/方法-简要回顾科学和趋势，然后分析结果。结果-就处理速度而言，当前的计算距离物理极限还很远。算法改进可能同样强大，但无法轻松预测或界定。尽管带宽的改善可能会很显着，但通信和传感已经达到了物理速度极限。这些提速的价值在于生产力的提高，及时性，结果的提早到达和控制论反馈的转变。但是，由于无法跟踪快速变化，紧急或系统性风险和异步性，时间压缩会导致控制失灵。如果存在竞争压力，提速还会加剧不同代理之间的不平等并降低安全性。快速决策可能不是更好的决策，因为它们可能是基于少量数据进行的。社会影响-对社会的影响和对治理的挑战可能是深远的，需要采用新方法来管理快速变化的技术风险。独创性/价值-事件发生的速度是预见力的重要方面，不仅是预测或分析的主题，而且还是可能发生的各种动态的驱动因素。

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  • 来源
    《Foresight》 |2019年第1期|84-99|共16页
  • 作者

    Anders Sandberg;

  • 作者单位

    Future of Humanity Institute, Faculty of Philosophy, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Ethics;

    机译：伦理;

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