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Food without sun: price and life-saving potential

机译：没有阳光的食物：价格和拯救生命的潜力

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摘要

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to estimate the price and life-saving potential of alternate foods. The sun could be blocked by asteroid impact, supervolcanic eruption or nuclear winter caused by burning of cities during a nuclear war. The primary problem in these scenarios is loss of food production. Previous work has shown that alternate foods not dependent on sunlight, such as bacteria grown on natural gas and cellulose turned into sugar enzymatically, could feed everyone in these catastrophes, and preparation for these foods would save lives in a manner that is highly cost-effective. Design/methodology/approach - This study estimates the price of alternate foods during a catastrophe in line with global trade and information sharing, but factors such as migration, loans, aid or conflict are not taken into consideration. Findings - Without alternate foods, for a five-year winter, only approximately 10 per cent of the population would survive. The price of dry food would rise to approximately $ 100/kg, and the expenditure on this food would be approximately $100tn. If alternate foods were $8/kg, the surviving global population increases to approximately 70 per cent, saving >4billion lives. Research limitations/implications - A nongovernmental mechanism for coordinating the investments of rich people may be possible. Identifying companies whose interests align with alternate food preparations may save lives at a negative cost. Practical implications - The probability of loss of civilization and its impact on future generations would be lower in this scenario, and the total expenditure on food would be halved. Originality/value - Preparation for alternate foods is a good investment even for wealthy people who would survive without alternate foods.
机译：目的-这项研究的目的是估计替代食品的价格和挽救生命的潜力。太阳可能会受到小行星撞击，超火山喷发或核战争中城市燃烧造成的核冬天的阻挡。在这些情况下的主要问题是粮食生产损失。先前的工作表明，不依赖日光的替代食品（例如天然气中生长的细菌和纤维素酶分解为糖）可以使所有人在这些灾难中饱食，而这些食品的制备将以极具成本效益的方式挽救生命。设计/方法/方法-这项研究根据全球贸易和信息共享估算了灾难期间替代食品的价格，但未考虑移民，贷款，援助或冲突等因素。调查结果-如果没有替代食品，在五年的冬季中，只有大约10％的人口能够生存。干粮的价格将升至约100美元/千克，而这种食品的支出将约为100tn美元。如果替代食品的价格为每公斤8美元，则尚存的全球人口将增加到大约70％，挽救40亿条生命。研究的局限性/意义-可能有一个非政府机制来协调富人的投资。确定利益与替代食品准备相一致的公司可能以负成本挽救生命。实际意义-在这种情况下，文明丧失的可能性及其对子孙后代的影响将降低，粮食总支出将减半。原创性/价值-准备替代食物是一项很好的投资，即使对于那些没有替代食物也能生存的富人来说。

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  • 来源
    《Foresight》 |2019年第1期|118-129|共12页
  • 作者

    David Denkenberger; Joshua Pearce; Andrew Ray Taylor; Ryan Black;

  • 作者单位

    Civil and Architectural Engineering, Tennessee State University, Nashville, Tennessee, USA and Global Catastrophic Risk Institute, Nashville, Tennessee, USA and Alliance to Feed the Earth in Disasters (ALLFED), Nashville, Tennessee, USA;

    Department of Materials Science and Engineering and Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Michigan Technological University, Houghton, Michigan, USA;

    Alliance to Feed the Earth in Disasters (ALLFED), Nashville, Tennessee, USA;

    Electrical Engineering, Tennessee State University, Nashville, Tennessee, USA;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Economics; Food manufacturing processes; Existential risk;

    机译：经济学;食品生产过程;存在风险;

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