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'Mainstreaming' foresight program development in the public sector

机译：公共部门的“主流化”预见计划开发

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Purpose - This paper aims to develop a framework for benchmarking the maturity of public sector foresight programs and outlines strategies that program managers can use to overcome obstacles to foresight program development in government. Design/methodology/approach - The public sector foresight benchmarking framework is informed by a bibliometric analysis and comprehensive review of the literature on public sector foresight, as well as three rounds of semi-structured interviews conducted over the course of a collaborative 18-month project with a relatively young department-level foresight program at the government of an Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) country. The paper frames public sector organizations as "complex adaptive systems" and draws from other government initiatives that require fundamental organizational change, namely, "gender mainstreaming". Findings - Nascent or less mature programs tend to be output-focused and disconnected from the policy cycle, while more mature programs balance outputs and participation as they intervene strategically in the policy cycle. Foresight program development requires that managers simultaneously pursue change at three levels: technical, structural and cultural. Therefore, successful strategies are multi-dimensional, incremental and iterative. Originality/value - The paper addresses two important gaps in the literature on public sector foresight programs by comprehensively describing the key attributes of mature and immature public sector foresight programs, and providing flexible, practical strategies for program development. The paper also pushes the boundaries of thinking about foresight by integrating insights from complexity theory and complexity-informed organizational change theory.
机译：目的-本文旨在建立一个基准测试公共部门远见计划成熟度的框架，并概述计划管理者可以用来克服政府中远见计划发展障碍的策略。设计/方法/方法-通过对公共部门远景文献的文献计量分析和全面审查以及在一个为期18个月的合作项目过程中进行的三轮半结构化访谈，为公共部门远景基准框架提供了信息在经济合作与发展组织（OECD）国家/地区的政府中拥有相对较年轻的部门级预见计划。该论文将公共部门组织视为“复杂的适应系统”，并借鉴了其他需要根本性组织变革的政府举措，即“性别主流化”。调查结果-较幼稚或较不成熟的计划往往以产出为中心，与政策周期脱节，而较成熟的计划则在策略周期内进行战略性干预时平衡产出和参与。前瞻性计划的开发要求管理人员同时在三个层面上进行变革：技术，结构和文化。因此，成功的策略是多维的，增量的和迭代的。原创性/价值-本文通过全面描述成熟和不成熟的公共部门预见计划的关键属性，并为计划制定提供灵活，实用的策略，解决了公共部门预见计划文献中的两个重要空白。本文还通过整合来自复杂性理论和复杂性知情的组织变革理论的见解，推动了关于远见的思考。

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