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Predictive value of horizon scanning for future scenarios

机译：未来情景的地平线扫描的预测价值

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Purpose - The purpose of this study is to measure the predictive value of future scenarios prepared using horizon scanning. The future scenarios prepared at the initiative of the Japanese Government have had low predictive value. They have frequently failed to contribute to industrial development and caused social loss. Horizon scanning, which is a key methodology applied in foresight activities, has begun to be used in countries as part of their national innovation systems in lieu of conventional forecasting methods based on the assumption of technological innovation. Research was conducted to actually measure the predictive value of future scenarios prepared using horizon scanning. Design/methodology/approach - An online survey in Japan was conducted on ordinary people's attitudes. The questionnaires presented 20 scenarios regarding future society, which were created with the conventional method or horizon scanning method. Findings - Survey results verified that horizon scanning-based scenarios provided significantly higher predictive value than scenarios prepared using conventional methods. Practical implications - Implication 1: By eliminating bias in input data.and perspectives adopted when considering scenarios, it may be expected that scenarios will be derived that have even higher "predictive value." Implication 2: By setting the layers of anticipated outputs high and the fields broad, it may be expected that scenarios will be derived that have even greater "change." Originality/value - The relatively high rate for the predictive value of the horizon scanning method, more than 40%, validated in this study was significant.
机译：目的 - 本研究的目的是测量的使用地平线扫描准备未来情景的预测值。在日本政府的倡议编写的未来情景有低预测值。他们经常未能促进工业发展和社会造成的损失。地平线扫描，这是展望活动应用的重要方法，已经开始在国家用作代替基于技术创新的前提传统的预测方法的国家创新体系的一部分。研究是进行实际测量的未来情景的预测值使用的地平线扫描准备。设计/方法/途径 - 日本的一项在线调查是对普通百姓的态度进行。问卷提出的关于未来社会，这与传统的方法或地平线扫描方法创建20个场景。调查结果 - 调查结果证实地平线基于扫描的场景提供显著更高预测值比使用情景常规方法制备。实际影响 - 启示1：通过消除输入data.and角度偏差采用考虑场景时，可以预期的情况将得到的具有更高的“预测值”。含义2：通过设置预期产出高的层和广泛的领域中，可以预期的是情景将推导出具有更大的“变化”。独创性/值 - 的相对高的速率为在地平线扫描方法的预测值，40％以上，在本研究验证了显著。

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