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首页> 外文期刊>Frontiers of economics in China >Promote Competitive Neutrality to Facilitate China's Economic Development: Outlook, Policy Simulations, and Reform Implementation—A Summary of the Annual SUFE Macroeconomic Report (2019-2020)
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Promote Competitive Neutrality to Facilitate China's Economic Development: Outlook, Policy Simulations, and Reform Implementation—A Summary of the Annual SUFE Macroeconomic Report (2019-2020)

机译：促进竞争中立以促进中国经济发展：前景，政策模拟和改革实施——SUFE年度宏观经济报告（2019-2020年）摘要

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摘要

Twenty nineteen (2019) marked another year of lethargic growth in the Chinese economy amidst escalated internal and external complexities. Internally, the country's macroeconomic landscape was overcast continuously by fallen consumption growth, plunged growth in manufacturing investment, rapid accumulation of household debt, risen income inequality, and the overhang of local government debt. The nation's external conditions did not fare any better, with drastically declined growth in imports and exports, continued trade tensions with the US, and weakened external demand. Based on the IAR-CMM model, which takes account of both cyclical and secular factors, the baseline real GDP growth rate is projected to be 6.0% in 2020 (5.9% using more reliable rather than the official data), with a downside risk. Alternative scenario analyses and policy simulations are conducted, in addition to the benchmark forecast, to reflect the influences of various internal and external uncertainties. The findings emanated from these analyses lead us to stress the importance and urgency of deepening reform to achieve competitive neutrality for China's transformation into a phase with sustainable and high-quality development.
机译：在内部和外部复杂性不断升级的情况下，中国经济又有29年（2019年）停滞增长。在内部，该国的宏观经济形势由于消费增长下降，制造业投资大幅下降，家庭债务迅速积累，收入不平等加剧以及地方政府债务过剩而不断被覆盖。该国的外部条件并没有好转，进出口增长急剧下降，与美国的贸易紧张局势持续，外部需求减弱。基于IAR-CMM模型，该模型同时考虑了周期性和长期因素，预计2020年基线实际GDP增长率为6.0％（使用更可靠的数据而非官方数据得出的增长率为5.9％），但存在下行风险。除基准预测外，还进行了替代方案分析和政策模拟，以反映各种内部和外部不确定性的影响。这些分析得出的结论使我们强调深化改革的重要性和紧迫性，以实现竞争中立，这是中国向可持续，高质量发展阶段的转型。

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