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Depletion rate analysis of fields and regions: A methodological foundation

机译：区域和地区的耗竭率分析：方法学基础

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This paper presents a comprehensive mathematical framework for depletion rate analysis and ties it to the physics of depletion. Theory was compared with empirical data from 1036 fields and a number of regions. Strong agreement between theory and practice was found, indicating that the framework is plausible. Both single fields and entire regions exhibit similar depletion rate patterns, showing the generality of the approach. The maximum depletion rates for fields were found to be well described by a Weibull distribution.rnDepletion rates were also found to strongly correlate with decline rates. In particular, the depletion rate at peak was shown to be useful for predicting the future decline rate. Studies of regions indicate that a depletion rate of remaining recoverable resources in the range of 2-3% is consistent with historical experience. This agrees well with earlier "peak oil" forecasts and indicates that they rest on a solid scientific ground.
机译：本文提出了一种用于耗竭率分析的综合数学框架，并将其与耗竭物理学联系起来。将理论与来自1036个领域和许多地区的经验数据进行了比较。发现理论与实践之间的强烈共识，表明该框架是合理的。单个场和整个区域都显示出相似的耗尽率模式，表明了该方法的普遍性。田间的最大枯竭率已被Weibull分布很好地描述.rn枯竭率也被发现与下降率密切相关。特别是，高峰期的消耗率已显示出对预测未来的下降率很有用。区域研究表明，剩余可采资源的枯竭率在2-3％的范围内与历史经验是一致的。这与早期的“峰值石油”预测非常吻合，并表明它们基于坚实的科学基础。

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