• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Futures research quarterly >How Accurate Are Your Forecasts? More Accurate than You Might Think
【24h】

How Accurate Are Your Forecasts? More Accurate than You Might Think

机译：您的预测有多准确？比您想像的更准确

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

Futurists are frequently asked "How have your predictions turned out?" We quickly explain that we don't make predictions, which are specific statements about whether something either will or won't happen by a specific date. They are a yes-or-no proposition. Futurists, we say, prefer forecasting, which involves statements about the likelihood or probability of whether something will happen within a specified timeframe. Of course, if you make enough predictions, you're bound to eventually get one right, owing to the laws of chance rather than any particular insight into the future. The predictor will often then complain that "I predicted xyz, and no one listened," neglecting to mention that dozens of other predictions didn't pan out. Most futurists would say "so what" to the argument of predictions made in a vacuum. Put another way, we avoid the fool's gold of trying to make accurate predictions, but seek to inspire our clients to think and act differently about the future by offering "forecasts" instead.
机译：未来主义者经常被问到“您的预测结果如何？”我们很快解释说我们不做预测，这是关于在特定日期之前是否会发生某事的特定声明。他们是一个是或否的主张。我们说，未来主义者更喜欢预测，它涉及关于在特定时间范围内是否会发生某事的可能性或概率的陈述。当然，如果您做出足够的预测，则由于机会定律而不是对未来的任何特定见解，您一定会最终正确。预测者然后常常会抱怨“我预测了xyz，但没有人听”，而忽略了数十个其他预测都没有成功。大多数未来主义者都会对真空中的预测论点说“那又怎样”。换句话说，我们避免傻子试图做出准确的预测，而是通过提供“预测”来激发客户对未来的思考和采取不同的行动。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号