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首页> 外文期刊>Futures research quarterly >ICT AND THE CITY: FORESIGHT AS A MEANS OF TACKLING COMPLEXITY AND UNCERTAINTY
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ICT AND THE CITY: FORESIGHT AS A MEANS OF TACKLING COMPLEXITY AND UNCERTAINTY

机译：ICT与城市：远见作为应对复杂性和不确定性的手段

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摘要

As complex systems, cities are always unfolding and always in transition—constantly developing, growing and adapting. The understanding that cities are discontinuous, non-linear and far from equilibrium has stimulated a shift in traditional planning approaches from Newtonian analytical reductionism towards embracing uncertainty and qualitative change in anticipating and preparing for future events. It has emerged in recent years that advances in ICT are a significant driving force of change—one which is dissolving geographical boundaries and transforming our understanding of the urban fabric. Urban dynamics, which have become concentrated in global city-regions, rely intensely on the facilitating attributes of advanced telecommunications for supporting relational complexity, distance links and snowballing interactions, both within and between cities (Graham, 1999). As Warf (1998) states, telecommunications "is one of the few topics in geography that richly illustrates the plasticity of space, the ways it can be stretched, deformed, or compressed according to changing economic and political imperatives." However, it is generally agreed that there is a significant gap in the knowledge base about the geographic distribution of advanced ICT and the corresponding implications for urban development. In light of such unprecedented technological changes, preparing for and anticipating possible future events has become crucial. In recent decades, technology foresight exercises have emerged to assist science and technology priority setting and to generate a shared awareness for future technologies, opportunities and strategies. However, few such exercises have comprehensively considered the implications for urban form in view of its dynamics under the influence of great technological progress. This article has sought to extend our understanding of the ways in which technology foresight exercises can be expanded to embrace complexity, uncertainty and the "long view" while engaging multiple actors in contributing to existing knowledge about the geographic diffusion of this advanced telecommunication service and the corresponding implications for urban development.
机译：作为复杂的系统，城市总是在不断发展和转型中-不断发展，壮大和适应。城市是不连续的，非线性的并且远非均衡的，这促使传统的规划方法从牛顿分析简化主义转向拥抱不确定性和质变，以预测和准备未来的事件。近年来已经出现，信息通信技术的进步是变革的重要驱动力，它正在消除地理边界并改变我们对城市结构的理解。城市动态已经集中在全球城市区域，它们高度依赖先进电信的便利属性来支持城市内部和城市之间的关系复杂性，距离链接和滚雪球的互动（Graham，1999）。正如Warf（1998）所言，电信“是地理学中为数不多的几个主题之一，充分说明了空间的可塑性，以及根据不断变化的经济和政治需要对空间进行拉伸，变形或压缩的方式。”但是，人们普遍认为，关于先进ICT的地理分布以及对城市发展的相应影响的知识库存在很大差距。鉴于这种前所未有的技术变革，为可能的未来事件做好准备和预见已变得至关重要。在最近的几十年中，出现了技术预见性练习，以协助科学和技术重点的确定，并对未来的技术，机会和战略产生共同的认识。但是，鉴于技术在巨大的技术进步的影响下的动态变化，很少有这样的练习全面地考虑了城市形态的含义。本文试图扩展我们对技术预见演习可扩展到涵盖复杂性，不确定性和“长远眼光”的方式的理解，同时让多个参与者参与对这种高级电信服务和网络的地理扩散的现有知识的贡献。对城市发展的相应影响。

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