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首页> 外文期刊>Futures research quarterly >A COMPLEMENTARY METHOD TO THE FUTURES WHEEL: THE FUTURES POLYGON
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A COMPLEMENTARY METHOD TO THE FUTURES WHEEL: THE FUTURES POLYGON

机译：期货轮的一种补充方法：期货多边形

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摘要

The Futures Wheel is a forecasting method conceived by J. C. Glenn (1972, 1994), and it identifies the subsequent consequences for a certain examined phenomenon. The technique is actually used worldwide to identify potential problems and opportunities, new markets, products and services; to value alternative tactics and strategies; and to create prevision within alternative scenarios, etc. This method usually utilizes a group of experts led by a leader-interviewer. The kind of phenomenon/future-event/idea to be investigated is defined and written right in the middle of a very large sheet of paper. The leader-interviewer draws an oval shape around the description and asks the group what necessarily accompanies this phenomenon. The impacts are supplied by the group and the leader draws short wheel radii around the central oval, placing one impact at the end of each radius. Another oval is drawn around every prime impact, and a ring is traced to connect these impacts (wheel). The leader then asks the group to express the most probable consequences for each prime impact forming the first ring of prime consequences. Then, two or three radii out of each prime impact oval are drawn, and the various secondary impacts are described at the end of each radius. After that, a second oval is drawn around each event and they are linked by a second wheel ring.
机译：期货轮是由J. C. Glenn（1972，1994）构想的一种预测方法，它可以确定某种特定现象的后续后果。该技术实际上已在全球范围内用于识别潜在的问题和机会，新市场，产品和服务。重视替代策略和战略；以及在替代方案等中创建预想。这种方法通常利用由领导访谈员领导的一组专家。待调查的现象/未来事件/想法的类型已定义并写在一张非常大的纸中间。主持人采访者在描述周围画了一个椭圆形，并询问小组该现象必然伴随什么。冲击由小组提供，并且领导者在中心椭圆周围绘制短轮半径，在每个半径的末端施加一个冲击。围绕每个主要冲击都绘制了另一个椭圆，并绘制了一个圆环以连接这些冲击（车轮）。然后，领导者要求小组对构成主要后果第一环的每个主要影响表达最可能的后果。然后，从每个主要冲击椭圆中画出两个或三个半径，并在每个半径的末端描述各种次要冲击。之后，在每个事件周围绘制第二个椭圆形，并通过第二个轮圈将它们链接在一起。

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