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首页> 外文期刊>Futures research quarterly >PROFITS ANDNONPROFITS: LOOKING FOR AND FINDING VALUE IN THE FUTURE
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PROFITS ANDNONPROFITS: LOOKING FOR AND FINDING VALUE IN THE FUTURE

机译：利与弊：寻找和寻找未来的价值

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摘要

One does not usually go looking at the future unless one or more of the following have happened: there is some sense that things could be going along much better at the organization or business in question; there is less internal agreement on a clear organizational vision than might be desired; the outside forces which affect associations appear less and less controllable; and the issues at stake have grown dramatically in their impact, complexity and speed of change. The future is a mysterious and often confusing place, but not just because "we do not, and cannot, know much about the future" (Wilson, 1998). The challenge of "thinking about the future" arises as well from the incredibly ambitious nature of the task. Not only can "The Future" cover every possible factor and dynamic affecting you and your organization, but the unlimited timeline involved in looking at "all events following the present" is simply nonsense. How far ahead should you look? Two months, two years, two decades? While some in the futures field hold forth on trends and events 100 years or even a 1,000 years in the future, the rapid pace of change today gives us plenty of issues to wrestle with on a 10- to-20-year timeline, which is the one recommended specifically for organizations just getting started in the foresight business.
机译：除非发生以下一种或多种情况，否则通常不会去展望未来：从某种意义上说，相关组织或企业的情况可能会好得多；在清晰的组织构想上达成的内部共识比预期的要少；影响协会的外部力量似乎越来越难以控制；所涉及的问题在其影响，复杂性和变更速度方面急剧增长。未来是一个神秘而又令人困惑的地方，而不仅仅是因为“我们对未来不了解，也无法知道”（Wilson，1998）。 “思考未来”的挑战也源于这项任务令人难以置信的野心。 “未来”不仅涵盖影响您和您的组织的所有可能因素和动态，而且查看“从现在开始的所有事件”涉及的无限时间安排简直是胡说八道。您应该看多远？两个月，两年，二十年？虽然期货领域的某些人坚持100年甚至1000年的趋势和事件，但当今变化的迅速步伐给我们带来了很多需要10至20年的时间线来解决的问题，特别推荐给刚开始从事远见业务的组织。

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