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首页> 外文期刊>Futures >Extending the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to support local adaptation planning-A climate service for Flensburg, Germany
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Extending the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to support local adaptation planning-A climate service for Flensburg, Germany

机译：扩展共享社会经济途径（SSP），以支持当地适应计划 - 德国弗伦斯堡的气候服务

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摘要

In this study, we extend the global-scale Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to develop local SSPs as a tool to inform adaptation decisions (a so-called 'climate service') for the city of Flensburg, Germany. Flensburg experiences regular coastal flooding during storm events, which is expected to increase with sea-level rise (SLR). To develop robust adaptation strategies under the uncertainties of future SLR and socioeconomic development in the city, local socioeconomic scenarios can help explore plausible future socioeconomic conditions and how these conditions drive adaptation strategies. We employ a multi-scale co-production approach for developing such local scenarios. Using the global SSPs as boundary conditions, we construct local SSP narratives based on local SSP elements that we compile during the process. We integrate local stakeholder knowledge into the local SSPs in an iterative manner with the help of focus group discussions, a scenario workshop, and email feedback. This process results in four local SSP narratives that explore alternative trends in socioeconomic development in Flensburg and are embedded in developments at national to global scales. Due to their local relevance, the extended local SSPs can serve as a climate service to support Flensburg in developing adaptation plans to cope with the future impacts of SLR.
机译：在这项研究中，我们扩展了全球范围共享的社会经济途径（SSP），以开发当地SSP作为一种信息，以告知德国弗伦斯堡市的适应决策（所谓的“气候服务”）。弗伦斯堡在风暴事件期间经历了定期的沿海洪水，预计会随海平面上升（SLR）增加。在城市未来SLR和社会经济发展的不确定性下制定强大的适应策略，当地社会经济情景可以帮助探索合理的未来社会经济条件以及这些条件如何驱动适应策略。我们采用了一种多规模的共同制作方法来开发这种当地情景。使用全局SSP作为边界条件，我们根据在过程中编译的本地SSP元素构建本地SSP叙述。在焦点小组讨论，方案研讨会和电子邮件反馈的帮助下，我们将当地利益相关者知识融入本地SSPS，以迭代的方式。这一进程会导致四个地方SSP叙述探讨弗伦斯堡社会经济发展的替代趋势，并嵌入国家对全球范围的发展。由于其本地相关性，扩展的本地SSP可以作为气候服务，以支持弗申斯堡在开发适应计划以应对SLR的未来影响。

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