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From system cost minimization to sustainability maximization-A new fuzzy program approach to energy systems analysis

机译：从系统成本最小化到可持续性最大化-能源系统分析的新模糊程序方法

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The transformation of existing energy systems into sustainable energy systems is a task which is related to several of the most urgent global problems, e.g. security of energy supply, shortage of resources, and climate change. Energy system modeling has played an important role in the computation of optimal possible future energy systems. In particular, technology oriented bottom-up energy system models have given insight into the required evolution of the energy technology mix. In face of the discussion about climate change, energy systems analysis has focused on the calculation of cost minimal energy futures subject to greenhouse gas mitigation paths, especially CO_2 mitigation paths. IKARUS-LP is a model of the German energy system which has been used for optimization tasks of this type. As CO_2 mitigation covers only one facet of sustainability. IKARUS-LP has been enhanced to optimize the German energy system for various sustainability targets specified by energy indicators for sustainable development. The resulting model is a fuzzy linear program, IKARUS-FLP. It computes an optimal compromise between the partly contradictory sustainability targets and system cost minimization. In this paper we introduce this model. Emphasis is given to the derivation of the crisp equivalent of the fuzzy problem. We show that a context-based semantics of fuzzy constraints is not adequate and found our semantics on the fuzzy extension principle. In a real-world case study for a time horizon until 2030 the mitigation path approach of IKARUS-LP and the sustainability optimization approach of IKARUS-FLP are compared. The results prove the feasibility of our new approach and its usefulness.
机译：现有能源系统向可持续能源系统的转换是一项与几个最紧迫的全球性问题有关的任务，例如：能源供应安全，资源短缺和气候变化。能源系统建模在计算可能的最佳未来能源系统中发挥了重要作用。尤其是，以技术为导向的自下而上的能源系统模型已经深入了解了能源技术组合所需的发展。面对有关气候变化的讨论，能源系统分析的重点是计算受温室气体减排路径（尤其是CO_2减排路径）影响的最小成本能源期货。 IKARUS-LP是德国能源系统的模型，已用于此类优化任务。由于减少CO_2仅涵盖可持续性的一个方面。对IKARUS-LP进行了增强，以优化德国能源系统，以实现可持续发展能源指标所指定的各种可持续发展目标。生成的模型是模糊线性程序IKARUS-FLP。它计算了部分矛盾的可持续性目标与系统成本最小化之间的最佳折衷。在本文中，我们介绍了这种模型。重点是模糊问题的清晰等效推导。我们表明模糊约束的基于上下文的语义是不够的，并在模糊扩展原理上找到了我们的语义。在一个直到2030年的时间范围内的实际案例研究中，比较了IKARUS-LP的缓解路径方法和IKARUS-FLP的可持续性优化方法。结果证明了我们新方法的可行性及其实用性。

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