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A fuzzy set-based approach for modeling dependence among human errors

机译:一种基于模糊集的人为错误之间相关性建模方法

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摘要

The assessment of dependence among human errors is an important aspect of human reliability analysis. When dependence between two tasks exists, the probability of the operators' failure on one task is higher if they have failed on the preceding task, compared to when they have succeeded. In current practice, the task of assessing dependence among successive operator actions relies to a great extent to expert judgment, often with lack of traceability and repeatability. To overcome these limitations, this work presents a systematic framework for the elicitation of expert knowledge on the factors influencing the dependence between two successive tasks. The framework is based on a fuzzy expert system in which a set of transparent fuzzy logic rules is used to represent the relationship between the input factors and the conditional human error probability. The proposed modeling approach is applied to two tasks required in response to an accident scenario at a nuclear power plant. Given the methodological scope of the work, the fuzzy expert system is tested directly on a working model of dependence, whereas no actual exercise of expert judgment elicitation is carried out.
机译:人为错误之间的依赖性评估是人的可靠性分析的重要方面。当存在两个任务之间的依赖性时,如果操作员在上一个任务上失败,则与在成功时相比,在一个任务上失败的概率更高。在当前实践中,评估连续的操作员动作之间的依赖性的任务在很大程度上取决于专家的判断,通常缺乏可追溯性和可重复性。为了克服这些局限性,这项工作提出了一个系统的框架,以激发出专家知识来了解影响两个连续任务之间依赖性的因素。该框架基于模糊专家系统,其中使用一组透明的模糊逻辑规则来表示输入因素与条件人为错误概率之间的关系。拟议的建模方法应用于响应核电厂事故场景所需的两项任务。给定工作的方法论范围,直接在依赖的工作模型上测试模糊专家系统,而没有进行专家判断启发的实际练习。

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