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On the determination of strength of belief for decision support under uncertainty―Part Ⅰ: generating strengths of belief

机译:不确定条件下决策支持信念强度的确定-第一部分:信念生成

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摘要

The problem of decision making under uncertainty is described and the difficulty of comparing actions with uncertain outcomes is noted. We discuss the role of valuation functions which convert an uncertain outcome into a single representative value and hence aid in the comparison of uncertain alternatives. The need for information about the strength of belief that a given outcome will occur is pointed out. We then look at various methods for obtaining this information. We consider in particular detail the situation in which the strength of belief is dependent on the outcome payoff.
机译:描述了不确定性下的决策问题,并指出了比较具有不确定结果的动作的难度。我们讨论了估值函数的作用,这些函数将不确定的结果转换为单个代表值,从而有助于比较不确定的备选方案。指出需要有关将发生给定结果的信念强度的信息。然后,我们看一下获取此信息的各种方法。我们将特别详细地考虑信念强度取决于结果收益的情况。

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