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Bi-layer portfolio selection model for electricity retailers based on behavioural portfolio theory under quota obligation of RPS

机译:基于rps配额义务的行为组合理论的电力零售商的双层产品组合选择模型

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摘要

With the development of renewable energy market, Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) has become the targeted renewable energy incentive mechanism in China and it is under a government's long-term plan that RPS overtakes feed-in tariff gradually in recent years. Given this background, the decision-making model of electricity retailers to accomplish the obligation under RPS is constructed as a bi-layer portfolio selection model. In the inner-layer, both capital allocation of the retailers to purchase various kinds of renewable energy capacity as well as RECs are optimised. In the outer-layer, the capital investment portfolio of each risky and risk-free strategy is determined based on the Behavioural Portfolio Theory, with different mental accounts (MAs) with different aspiration points and threshold levels built to describe the investor philosophy of retailers during the decision-making process. The simulation results of a provincial electricity market in China demonstrate that the presented model can effectively assist electricity retailers in making their capital investment strategies under RPS with relevant market factors. In addition, the proposed model provides insights for policy makers to set key parameters involving the design of RPS by analysing behaviours of retailers, including required quota ratio and value of fines.
机译:随着可再生能源市场的发展,可再生组合标准(RPS)已成为中国的目标可再生能源激励机制,并在政府的长期计划下,近年来逐步超越课程课程。鉴于此背景下,要完成RPS下义务的电力零售商决策模型被构造为双层组合选择模型。在内层中,优化零售商的资本分配,以购买各种可再生能源能力以及REC。在外层,每个风险和无风险策略的资本投资组合是根据行为组合理论确定的,不同的心理账户(MAS)具有不同的愿望点和阈值水平,以描述零售商的投资者哲学决策过程。中国省电市场的仿真结果表明,所呈现的模式可以有效地帮助电力零售商在具有相关市场因素的RPS下进行资本投资策略。此外,该拟议的模型还提供了对决策者的洞察,以便通过分析零售商的行为来设置涉及RPS设计的关键参数,包括所需配额比和罚款价值。

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