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Unstable Climates: Exploring The Statistical And Social Constructions Of 'normal' Climate

机译：不稳定的气候：探讨“正常”气候的统计和社会结构

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The idea of climate has both statistical and social foundations. Both of these dimensions of climate change over time: climate, as defined by meteorological statistics, changes for both natural and anthropogenic reasons; and our expectations of future climate also change, as cultures, societies and knowledge evolves. This paper explores the interactions between these different expressions of climate change by focusing on the idea of 'normal' climates defined by statistics. We show how this idea came into being in meteorological circles and then review how this idea of climatic normality gets entangled with cultural and psychological processes. Using data from historical and predicted climates in the UK, we illustrate the significance of choosing different baseline 'normals' for retrospective and prospective interpretations of climate change. Since the choice of these statistical 'normals' reflects cultural, political and psychological preferences and practices as much as scientific ones, we argue that expectations of the climatic future are influenced by social as well as statistical norms. Seeing climate as co-constructed between the psycho-cultural constraints of society and the physical constraints of the material world offers a different way of thinking about the instabilities of climate and the ways we adapt to them.
机译：气候概念具有统计和社会基础。气候随时间变化的这两个方面：气象统计所定义的气候，由于自然和人为原因而变化；随着文化，社会和知识的发展，我们对未来气候的期望也会改变。本文通过关注统计定义的“正常”气候的概念，探索了这些不同的气候变化表达之间的相互作用。我们展示了这个想法是如何在气象界出现的，然后回顾了这种气候正常性的想法如何与文化和心理过程纠缠在一起。使用来自英国历史和预测气候的数据，我们说明了选择不同的基准“常态”对于气候变化的回顾性和前瞻性解释的重要性。由于对这些统计“常态”的选择与科学一样，都反映了文化，政治和心理的偏爱和实践，因此我们认为，对气候未来的期望受到社会以及统计规范的影响。将气候视为社会的心理文化约束与物质世界的物理约束之间的共同建构，提供了一种不同的思维方式来思考气候的不稳定性以及我们如何适应气候的不稳定性。

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