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Simulating mesoscale coastal evolution for decadal coastal management: A new framework integrating multiple, complementary modelling approaches

机译：模拟中尺度沿海演变以进行十年期沿海管理：一个整合了多种互补建模方法的新框架

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摘要

Coastal and shoreline management increasingly needs to consider morphological change occurring at decadal to centennial timescales, especially that related to climate change and sea-level rise. This requires the development of morphological models operating at a mesoscale, defined by time and length scales of the order 10(1) to 10(2) years and 10(1) to 10(2) km. So-called 'reduced complexity' models that represent critical processes at scales not much smaller than the primary scale of interest, and are regulated by capturing the critical feedbacks that govern land form behaviour, are proving effective as a means of exploring emergent coastal behaviour at a landscape scale. Such models tend to be computationally efficient and are thus easily applied within a probabilistic framework. At the same time, reductionist models, built upon a more detailed description of hydrodynamic and sediment transport processes, are capable of application at increasingly broad spatial and temporal scales. More qualitative modelling approaches are also emerging that can guide the development and deployment of quantitative models, and these can be supplemented by varied data-driven modelling approaches that can achieve new explanatory insights from observational datasets. Such disparate approaches have hitherto been pursued largely in isolation by mutually exclusive modelling communities. Brought together, they have the potential to facilitate a step change in our ability to simulate the evolution of coastal morphology at scales that are most relevant to managing erosion and flood risk. Here, we advocate and outline a new integrated modelling framework that deploys coupled mesoscale reduced complexity models, reductionist coastal area models, data-driven approaches, and qualitative conceptual models. Integration of these heterogeneous approaches gives rise to model compositions that can potentially resolve decadal- to centennial-scale behaviour of diverse coupled open coast, estuary and inner shelf settings. This vision is illustrated through an idealised composition of models for a similar to 70 km stretch of the Suffolk coast, eastern England. A key advantage of model linking is that it allows a wide range of real-world situations to be simulated from a small set of model components. However, this process involves more than just the development of software that allows for flexible model coupling. The compatibility of radically different modelling assumptions remains to be carefully assessed and testing as well as evaluating uncertainties of models in composition are areas that require further attention. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
机译：沿海和海岸线管理越来越需要考虑十年到百年尺度上发生的形态变化，特别是与气候变化和海平面上升有关的形态变化。这需要开发以中尺度运行的形态学模型，该尺度由10（1）至10（2）年和10（1）至10（2）km的时间和长度尺度定义。所谓的“降低复杂性”模型以不小于主要关注尺度的尺度表示关键过程，并通过捕获控制土地形态行为的关键反馈进行调节，被证明是一种有效的手段，可用于探索沿海地区新兴的沿海行为。景观比例尺。这样的模型往往计算效率高，因此很容易在概率框架内应用。同时，基于对水动力和泥沙输送过程的更详细描述而建立的还原论模型能够在越来越广泛的时空尺度上应用。还出现了更多的定性建模方法，这些方法可以指导定量模型的开发和部署，并且可以通过各种数据驱动的建模方法来补充这些方法，这些方法可以从观测数据集中获得新的解释见解。迄今为止，相互排斥的建模社区在很大程度上孤立地追求这种不同的方法。综合起来，它们有可能促进我们以与管理侵蚀和洪水风险最相关的规模模拟海岸形态演变的能力的逐步变化。在这里，我们提倡并概述一个新的集成建模框架，该框架将部署耦合的中尺度降低复杂性模型，简化主义沿海地区模型，数据驱动方法和定性概念模型。这些异构方法的集成产生了模型组合，这些模型组合可以潜在地解决各种耦合的开阔海岸，河口和内部陆架环境的年代际到百年尺度的行为。通过对英格兰东部萨福克海岸延伸约70公里的模型进行了理想化组合，说明了这一愿景。模型链接的主要优势在于，它允许从一小组模型组件中模拟各种现实情况。但是，此过程不仅仅涉及允许灵活模型耦合的软件开发。完全不同的建模假设的兼容性仍有待仔细评估，测试以及评估组成模型的不确定性是需要进一步关注的领域。 （C）2015 Elsevier B.V.保留所有权利。

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  • 来源
    《Geomorphology》 |2016年第1期|68-80|共13页
  • 作者

    van Maanen Barend; Nicholls Robert J.; French Jon R.; Barkwith Andrew; Bonaldo Davide; Burningham Helene; Murray A. Brad; Payo Andres; Sutherland James; Thornhill Gillian; Townend Ian H.; van der Wegen Mick; Walkden Mike J. A.;

  • 作者单位

    Univ Southampton, Fac Engn & Environm, Univ Rd, Southampton SO17 1BJ, Hants, England;

    Univ Southampton, Fac Engn & Environm, Univ Rd, Southampton SO17 1BJ, Hants, England;

    UCL, UCL Dept Geog, Coastal & Estuarine Unit, Gower St, London WC1E 6BT, England;

    British Geol Survey, Nottingham NG12 5GG, England;

    Natl Res Council CNR ISMAR, Inst Marine Sci, Arsenale Tesa 104, Venice, Italy;

    UCL, UCL Dept Geog, Coastal & Estuarine Unit, Gower St, London WC1E 6BT, England;

    Duke Univ, Nicholas Sch Environm, Ctr Nonlinear & Complex Syst, Div Earth & Ocean Sci, Durham, NC 27708 USA;

    Univ Southampton, Fac Engn & Environm, Univ Rd, Southampton SO17 1BJ, Hants, England|Univ Oxford, Ctr Environm, S Parks Rd, Oxford OX1 3QY, England;

    HR Wallingford, Howbery Pk, Wallingford OX10 8BA, Oxon, England;

    UCL, UCL Dept Geog, Coastal & Estuarine Unit, Gower St, London WC1E 6BT, England;

    CoastalSEA, Winchester SO23 0JT, Hants, England;

    UNESCO IHE, POB 3015, NL-2601 DA Delft, Netherlands|Deltares, Postbus 177, NL-2600 MH Delft, Netherlands;

    WSP, Keble House, Exeter EX1 1NT, Devon, England;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    Coastal morphology; Hybrid modelling approach; Morphodynamics; Model coupling; Shoreline management;

    机译：海岸形态学;混合建模方法;形态动力学;模型耦合;海岸线管理;

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