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首页> 外文期刊>Geomorphology >Lahar hazard assessment in the southern drainage system of Cotopaxi volcano, Ecuador: Results from multiscale lahar simulations
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Lahar hazard assessment in the southern drainage system of Cotopaxi volcano, Ecuador: Results from multiscale lahar simulations

机译：厄瓜多尔科托帕希火山南部排水系统的Lahar危害评估：多尺度lahar模拟的结果

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摘要

The ice-capped Cotopaxi volcano is known worldwide for the large-scale, catastrophic lahars that have occurred in connection with historical explosive eruptions. The most recent large-scale lahar event occurred in 1877 when scoria flows partially melted ice and snow of the summit glacier, generating debris flows that severely impacted all the river valleys originating from the volcano. The 1877 lahars have been considered in the recent years as a maximum expected event to define the hazard associated to lahar generation at Cotopaxi. Conversely, recent field-based studies have shown that such debris flows have occurred several times during the last 800 years of activity at Cotopaxi, and that the scale of lahars has been variable, including events much larger than that of 1877. Despite a rapid retreat of the summit ice cap over the past century, in fact, there are no data clearly suggesting that future events will be smaller than those observed in the deposits of the last 800 years of activity. In addition, geological field data prove that the lahar triggering mechanism also has to be considered as a key input parameter and, under appropriate eruptive mechanisms, a hazard scenario of a lahar with a volume 3-times larger than the 1877 event is likely. In order to analyze the impact scenarios in the southern drainage system of the volcano, simulations of inundation areas were performed with a semi-empirical model (LAHARZ), using input parameters including variable water volume. Results indicate that a lahar 3-times larger than the 1877 event would invade much wider areas than those flooded by the 1877 lahars along the southern valley system, eventually impacting highly-urbanized areas such as the city of Latacunga.
机译：这座冰封的科托帕希火山因举世闻名的爆炸性大规模爆炸事件而闻名世界。最近一次大规模的拉哈事件发生在1877年，当时火山灰流部分融化了峰顶冰川的冰和雪，产生的泥石流严重影响了源自火山的所有河谷。近年来，人们将1877年的拉哈尔视为最大的事件，用以界定与科托帕克西产拉哈尔有关的危害。相反，最近的野外研究表明，在科托帕克西活动的最近800年中，这类泥石流已经发生过几次，而拉哈斯的规模是可变的，包括比1877年大得多的事件。实际上，没有一个数据清楚地表明未来的事件将比过去800年活动的顶峰中观测到的事件小。此外，地质现场数据证明，也必须将拉哈尔触发机制视为关键输入参数，在适当的喷发机制下，可能发生比1877年事件大3倍的拉哈尔的危险情况。为了分析火山南部排水系统的影响情景，使用包括水量可变在内的输入参数，通过半经验模型（LAHARZ）对淹没区域进行了模拟。结果表明，比1877年事件大3倍的拉哈尔入侵的区域比1877年拉哈尔沿南部山谷系统洪水泛滥的区域要大得多，最终影响了高度城市化的地区，例如拉塔昆加市。

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  • 来源
    《Geomorphology》 |2014年第15期|51-63|共13页
  • 作者

    Marco Pistolesi; Raffaello Cioni; Mauro Rosi; Eduardo Aguilera;

  • 作者单位

    Earth Sciences Department, University of Pisa, Via Santa Maria 53, 56126 Pisa, Italy;

    Department of Chemical and Earth Sciences, University of Cagliari, Italy;

    Earth Sciences Department, University of Pisa, Italy;

    Escuela Politecnica del Ejercito (ESPE), Quito, Ecuador;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Lahar; Hazard; Simulation; LAHARZ; Cotopaxi;

    机译：拉哈冒险;模拟;拉哈斯科托帕西;

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