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Population and Economic Growth Under Different Growth Engines

机译:不同增长引擎下的人口与经济增长

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Using a growth model with physical capital accumulation, human capital investment and horizontal R&D activity, this paper proposes an alternative channel through which an increase in the population growth rate may yield a non-uniform (i.e., a positive, negative, or neutral) impact on the long-run growth rate of per-capita GDP, as available empirical evidence seems mostly to suggest. The proposed mechanism relies on the nature of the process of economic growth (whether it is fully or semi-endogenous), and the peculiar engine(s) driving economic growth (human capital investment, R&D activity, or both). The model also explains why in the long term the association between population growth and productivity growth may ultimately be negative when R&D is an engine of economic growth.
机译:本文使用具有实物资本积累,人力资本投资和横向R&D活动的增长模型,提出了另一种渠道,通过该渠道人口增长率可以产生不均匀(即正面,负面或中性)的影响关于人均GDP的长期增长率,现有的经验证据似乎大多表明这一点。拟议的机制取决于经济增长过程的性质(是完全内生的还是半内生的),以及驱动经济增长的特殊引擎(人力资本投资,R&D活动或两者)。该模型还解释了为什么长期来看,当研发是经济增长的引擎时,人口增长与生产率增长之间的关联最终可能为负。

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