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Impact of Central Bank Intervention during Periods of Speculative Pressure: Evidence from the European Monetary System

机译：投机压力时期央行干预的影响：来自欧洲货币体系的证据

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摘要

This paper studies the effects of Banco de Espana and Banque de France interventions during the 1992-93 European Monetary System crises. In particular, a Markov Switching model is estimated where interventions influence the probabilities of transition between a calm and a turbulent regime. Furthermore, we analyze the impact of intervention on the expected rate of realignment. On balance, the results are consistent with the view that publicly known interventions but not secret interventions increased both the probability of switching to the turbulent regime as well as the expected realignment rate.
机译：本文研究了1992-93年欧洲货币体系危机期间西班牙央行和法国央行干预的影响。特别是，估计了马尔可夫切换模型，其中干预会影响从平静状态到动荡状态之间过渡的可能性。此外，我们分析了干预措施对预期重组率的影响。总而言之，结果与以下观点一致：公众已知的干预措施而非秘密干预措施增加了转换为湍流状态的可能性以及预期的调整率。

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